Heydari Pedram, Meyer Michelle N, Chabris Christopher F
Department of Economics, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America.
Department of Bioethics and Decision Sciences, Geisinger Health System, Danville, Pennsylvania, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2025 May 27;20(5):e0322242. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0322242. eCollection 2025.
The sudden onset, rapid spread, and later surges of the Covid-19 pandemic resulted in shortages of ventilators, pharmaceuticals, and other critical resources, leaving individual clinicians to make rationing decisions for which they had little expertise or training. In two pre-registered experiments with large samples of laypeople (N = 2007) and clinicians (N = 1256), conducted during the first year of the pandemic, we found evidence of two inconsistencies in hypothetical rationing decisions: (1) The choice of which of two patients should receive a medical treatment can be systematically affected by adding a third patient who logically should not receive the treatment (an instance of the attraction effect); (2) Decisions as to which patient should receive the treatment are inconsistent with general rationing policies that participants themselves endorse. We argue that our results provide empirical support for the necessity of predetermined policies administered by independent decision-makers to ensure fairness and consistency, as required by law and ethics, in healthcare rationing choices.
新冠疫情的突然爆发、迅速蔓延以及后来的激增,导致呼吸机、药品和其他关键资源短缺,使得个体临床医生不得不做出配给决策,而他们对此几乎没有专业知识或培训。在疫情第一年对大量外行人(N = 2007)和临床医生(N = 1256)进行的两项预先注册的实验中,我们发现了假设性配给决策中存在的两个不一致之处的证据:(1)在两名患者中选择哪一名接受治疗的决策可能会受到加入第三名逻辑上不应接受治疗的患者的系统性影响(这是吸引效应的一个例子);(2)关于哪名患者应接受治疗的决策与参与者自己认可的一般配给政策不一致。我们认为,我们的结果为独立决策者制定预先确定的政策的必要性提供了实证支持,以确保医疗配给选择依法和依伦理要求做到公平和一致。