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使用生存分析和机器学习分析的急性脑血管病死亡率模型中共病严重程度调整方法的开发与验证

Development and Validation of Comorbidity Severity Adjustment Methods in Mortality Models for Acute Cerebrovascular Disease Using Survival and Machine Learning Analyses.

作者信息

Kim Yeaeun, Park Jongho

机构信息

Department of Health Care Management, Catholic University of Pusan, Busan 46252, Republic of Korea.

Department of Health and Medical Information, Daegu University, Gyeongsan-si 38453, Republic of Korea.

出版信息

J Clin Med. 2025 May 8;14(10):3281. doi: 10.3390/jcm14103281.

Abstract

: This study aimed to develop and validate comorbidity-based severity adjustment methods for acute cerebrovascular disease by recalibrating the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and constructing a CCS-based comorbidity index to improve mortality risk prediction. : Using the Korea Disease Control Agency's Discharge Injury In-depth Survey Dataset (2013-2022), we applied Cox proportional hazards regression and machine learning techniques, including LASSO, CART, Random Forests, GBM, and ANN, to recalibrate the CCI and develop a CCS-based comorbidity index. : The recalibrated Charlson Comorbidity Index (m-CCI) and the newly developed CCS-based comorbidity index (m-CCS) demonstrated improved predictive performance for in-hospital mortality. Among the machine learning models, GBM (AUC = 0.835) and ANN (AUC = 0.830) demonstrated the highest predictive accuracy, with m-CCS consistently outperforming other indices. : The recalibrated m-CCI and newly developed m-CCS comorbidity indices enhance mortality risk adjustment for acute cerebrovascular disease patients in Korea. The superior performance of machine learning models underscores their potential for enhancing severity adjustment in hospital benchmarking and quality assessment.

摘要

本研究旨在通过重新校准查尔森合并症指数(CCI)并构建基于临床分类系统(CCS)的合并症指数,开发并验证用于急性脑血管疾病的基于合并症的严重程度调整方法,以改善死亡风险预测。利用韩国疾病控制机构的出院伤害深度调查数据集(2013 - 2022年),我们应用Cox比例风险回归和机器学习技术,包括套索回归、分类与回归树、随机森林、梯度提升机和人工神经网络,来重新校准CCI并开发基于CCS的合并症指数。重新校准的查尔森合并症指数(m - CCI)和新开发的基于CCS的合并症指数(m - CCS)对院内死亡率显示出更好的预测性能。在机器学习模型中,梯度提升机(AUC = 0.835)和人工神经网络(AUC = 0.830)显示出最高的预测准确性,m - CCS始终优于其他指数。重新校准的m - CCI和新开发的m - CCS合并症指数提高了韩国急性脑血管疾病患者的死亡风险调整。机器学习模型的卓越性能凸显了它们在医院基准评估和质量评估中增强严重程度调整的潜力。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3f34/12112135/4ee6022d9fe9/jcm-14-03281-g001.jpg

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