Theron P G, Brand T S, Cloete S W P, van Zyl J H C
Directorate: Animal Sciences, Department of Agriculture, Western Cape Government, Private Bag X1, Elsenburg, 7607, South Africa.
Department of Animal Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag X1, Matieland, 7602, South Africa.
Int J Biometeorol. 2025 Aug;69(8):1999-2012. doi: 10.1007/s00484-025-02946-z. Epub 2025 May 28.
Climate change and the associated changing weather patterns provide a global challenge to livestock producers. Due to the lack of information on the exact relationship between weather patterns and production output, livestock producers may struggle to adjust to these changing environmental conditions. This study therefore evaluated the feasibility of modelling the impact of weather conditions both within and across production seasons on production output in two divergently selected lines of Merino ewes. Production data collected from the high and low line of the Elsenburg Merino flock between 1993 and 2021 were related to weather data recorded by a weather station on the farm. The weather data included temperature, relative humidity and rainfall readings. Multiple linear regressions between uncorrelated weather variables and production parameters (conception, lambing, multiple offspring and survival percentages, average weaning weight and weight weaned per ewe) were derived to quantify the relationship between weather and production. Within production season, weather conditions during mating significantly affected lambing (R = 0.332) and multiple offspring percentages (R = 0.316) in the high line and lambing percentage (R = 0.205) in the low line. Lambing period weather affected average weaning weight in the high line (R = 0.230) and survival percentage in the low line (R = 0.193). Significant amounts of the variation (R = 0.180–0.306) in various production traits for both lines were also accounted for by the fitting of regression models of weather conditions in the preceding year to current production performance. This indicates the presence of weather-related carry-over effects. It therefore appears that using weather data to predict production output, both within and between production seasons, may be a viable management tool to aid producers in decision making. More work is required before these models are suitable for general uptake.
气候变化以及与之相关的天气模式变化给畜牧生产者带来了全球性挑战。由于缺乏关于天气模式与生产产出之间确切关系的信息，畜牧生产者可能难以适应这些不断变化的环境条件。因此，本研究评估了对两个不同选育品系的美利奴母羊在生产季节内及跨生产季节的天气条件对生产产出的影响进行建模的可行性。收集了1993年至2021年期间埃尔森堡美利奴羊群高、低品系的生产数据，并将其与农场气象站记录的气象数据相关联。气象数据包括温度、相对湿度和降雨量读数。通过对不相关的气象变量与生产参数（受孕率、产羔率、多羔率和存活率、平均断奶体重以及每只母羊断奶体重）进行多元线性回归，以量化天气与生产之间的关系。在生产季节内，配种期间的天气条件对高品系的产羔率（R = 0.332）和多羔率（R = 0.316）以及低品系的产羔率（R = 0.205）有显著影响。产羔期天气对高品系的平均断奶体重（R = 0.230）和低品系的存活率（R = 0.193）有影响。通过将上一年的天气条件回归模型拟合到当前生产性能，两个品系的各种生产性状中也有相当一部分变异（R = 0.180 - 0.306）得到了解释。这表明存在与天气相关的遗留效应。因此，利用气象数据预测生产季节内及跨生产季节的生产产出，可能是帮助生产者进行决策的一种可行管理工具。在这些模型适合广泛应用之前，还需要开展更多工作。
