Zhou Yun, Gu Songwei, Yang Hong, Ge Zhongxi, Dong Guanyu, Zhao Yinjun, Yang Qingyuan
Chongqing Jinfo Mountain National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station for Karst Ecosystem, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, 400715, China; New Liberal Arts Laboratory for Sustainable Development of Rural Western China, Chongqing, 400715, China; Key Laboratory of Monitoring, Evaluation and Early Warning of Territorial Spatial Planning Implementation, Ministry of Natural Resources, 401147, China.
Chongqing Jinfo Mountain National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station for Karst Ecosystem, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, 400715, China.
Environ Res. 2025 Oct 1;282:121986. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2025.121986. Epub 2025 May 27.
With the increasing frequency of heatwaves and a growing aging population, the number of older adults exposed to extreme heat has risen sharply. However, most existing studies assess heatwave exposure for the general population, with limited attention to the elderly. Despite the accelerating demographic shift and escalating climate risks, few studies in China have specifically examined the exposure of the elderly to heatwaves. Addressing these gaps, this study assesses the spatiotemporal dynamics of heatwave exposure among the elderly using historical and projected temperature data under multiple Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Heatwaves were identified based on the Excess Heat Factor (EHF), and exposure was calculated by integrating high-resolution temperature, aging rate, and population datasets. The results indicate that the national average frequency of heatwaves is projected to approach or exceed 30 days from 2041 to 2100, with significant increases observed across more than 67% of the country. Elderly population exposure to heatwave increased from 3.93 million person-days in 2001 to 10.74 million in 2020, with climate effect alone contributing 51.67% to this increase. By 2100, the exposure is projected to reach 116.08 million person-days under SSP2-4.5 and 239.12 million person-days under SSP5-8.5, with the interaction effect between climate change and demographic aging accounting for 60.37 % and 69.53 % of the increase, respectively. This highlights a shift from climate-driven exposure in the historical period to a dominance of interaction effect in the future. These findings underscore the urgent need for tailored adaptation measures to protect vulnerable elderly populations from intensifying heatwave risks.
随着热浪发生频率的增加以及老年人口的不断增长，暴露于极端高温的老年人数量急剧上升。然而，大多数现有研究评估的是普通人群的热浪暴露情况，对老年人的关注有限。尽管人口结构转变加速且气候风险不断升级，但中国很少有研究专门考察老年人的热浪暴露情况。为填补这些空白，本研究利用多个共享社会经济路径（SSP）下的历史和预测温度数据，评估了老年人热浪暴露的时空动态。基于过热因子（EHF）识别热浪，并通过整合高分辨率温度、老龄化率和人口数据集来计算暴露情况。结果表明，预计2041年至2100年全国热浪平均频率将接近或超过30天，全国超过67%的地区有显著增加。老年人口的热浪暴露天数从2001年的393万人日增加到2020年的1074万人日，仅气候效应就占这一增长的51.67%。到2100年，在SSP2-4.5情景下，暴露预计将达到1.1608亿人日，在SSP5-8.5情景下将达到2.3912亿人日，气候变化与人口老龄化之间的相互作用效应分别占增长的60.37%和69.53%。这凸显了从历史时期由气候驱动的暴露向未来相互作用效应占主导的转变。这些发现强调迫切需要制定针对性的适应措施，以保护脆弱的老年人群体免受不断加剧的热浪风险。
