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一种简化的免疫失调指数(IL-6/LY)作为脓毒症患者28天院内死亡率和多器官功能障碍综合征的可靠预测指标。

A Simplified Immune-Dysregulation Index (IL-6/LY) as a Robust Predictor of 28-Day In-Hospital Mortality and MODS in Patients with Sepsis.

作者信息

Liu Meili, You Tao, Li Shifeng, Hao Yan, Wang Zhiyang, Huang Fang, Wang Jun

机构信息

Department of Critical Care Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, People's Republic of China.

Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, People's Republic of China.

出版信息

J Inflamm Res. 2025 May 28;18:6945-6958. doi: 10.2147/JIR.S521684. eCollection 2025.

DOI:10.2147/JIR.S521684
PMID:40453966
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12126990/
Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the prognosis significance of a newly simplified immune-dysregulation index, interleukin-6-to-lymphocyte ratio (IL-6/LY), in individuals diagnosed with sepsis.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study enrolling consecutive patients diagnosed with sepsis who qualified the inclusion criteria and were admitted to the intensive care unit of the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University between March 2017 and January 2023. Multivariate COX and logistic regression models were used to estimate the association between IL-6/LY and 28-day in-hospital mortality or multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS). Restricted cubic splines and survival analysis were used to show a nonlinear correlation between IL-6/LY and mortality. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to evaluate the prognostic value of IL-6/LY. was performed using the Kaplan‒Meier method.

RESULTS

The study encompassed 301 participants, categorized into two groups-those with low IL-6/LY and high IL-6/LY-determined by the cutoff value of 326.04. On multivariate analyses, a high IL-6/LY was independently associated with 28-day in-hospital mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 8.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.67-13.74, < 0.001) and MODS (odds ratio [OR] 3.44, 95% CI 1.85‒6.38, < 0.001). The area under the curve of IL-6/LY for predicting death and MODS were 0.893 (95% CI, 0.855-0.931) and 0.743 (95% CI, 0.688-0.798), respectively. The Kaplan‒Meier analysis showed a significantly higher risk of mortality in the high IL-6/LY group (≥ 326.04) (log-rank < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The IL-6/LY is significantly associated with the risk of 28-day in-hospital mortality and MODS in patients with sepsis, making it a potential prognostic marker for risk stratification, which enables early identification of high-risk patients, timely interventions, and personalized treatment strategies to optimize patient outcomes.

摘要

目的

评估一种新的简化免疫失调指数,即白细胞介素-6与淋巴细胞比值(IL-6/LY)对脓毒症患者预后的意义。

方法

这是一项回顾性队列研究,纳入2017年3月至2023年1月期间在苏州大学附属第一医院重症监护病房收治的连续诊断为脓毒症且符合纳入标准的患者。采用多变量COX和逻辑回归模型评估IL-6/LY与28天院内死亡率或多器官功能障碍综合征(MODS)之间的关联。使用受限立方样条和生存分析来显示IL-6/LY与死亡率之间的非线性相关性。进行受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析以评估IL-6/LY的预后价值。采用Kaplan-Meier法进行分析。

结果

该研究纳入301名参与者,根据截断值326.04分为两组——低IL-6/LY组和高IL-6/LY组。多变量分析显示,高IL-6/LY与28天院内死亡率(风险比[HR]:8.01,95%置信区间[CI] 4.67 - 13.74,P < 0.001)和MODS(优势比[OR] 3.44,95% CI 1.85 - 6.38,P < 0.001)独立相关。IL-6/LY预测死亡和MODS的曲线下面积分别为0.893(95% CI,0.855 - 0.931)和0.743(95% CI,0.688 - 0.798)。Kaplan-Meier分析显示高IL-6/LY组(≥ 326.04)的死亡风险显著更高(对数秩检验P < 0.001)。

结论

IL-6/LY与脓毒症患者28天院内死亡率和MODS风险显著相关,使其成为潜在的风险分层预后标志物,能够早期识别高危患者,及时进行干预,并制定个性化治疗策略以优化患者结局。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0e70/12126990/692da5a6eedd/JIR-18-6945-g0009.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0e70/12126990/b68d340b12c2/JIR-18-6945-g0006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0e70/12126990/7890e56d6518/JIR-18-6945-g0007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0e70/12126990/37411b8feae5/JIR-18-6945-g0008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0e70/12126990/692da5a6eedd/JIR-18-6945-g0009.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0e70/12126990/dbf233ee9f82/JIR-18-6945-g0001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0e70/12126990/009f1da72beb/JIR-18-6945-g0002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0e70/12126990/aec9947385e7/JIR-18-6945-g0003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0e70/12126990/b939922aaf57/JIR-18-6945-g0004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0e70/12126990/253ba2e509fb/JIR-18-6945-g0005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0e70/12126990/b68d340b12c2/JIR-18-6945-g0006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0e70/12126990/7890e56d6518/JIR-18-6945-g0007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0e70/12126990/37411b8feae5/JIR-18-6945-g0008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0e70/12126990/692da5a6eedd/JIR-18-6945-g0009.jpg

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