Valdez-Flores Ciriaco, Li Abby A, Bender Thomas J, Teta M Jane
College of Engineering, Texas, USA.
Exponent, Inc. Health Sciences, Menlo Park, California, USA.
Risk Anal. 2025 Sep;45(9):2822-2837. doi: 10.1111/risa.70057. Epub 2025 Jun 3.
The two most recent cancer risk assessments for ethylene oxide (EO) are based on the same epidemiologic study of sterilant workers conducted by the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) but result in cancer risk estimates with three orders of magnitude difference, despite relying on the same assumption of a default linear (non-threshold) extrapolation. A major reason for the difference is the use of different exposure-response models (i.e., the standard Cox proportional hazards [CPH] versus a two-piece linear spline model with a steep initial slope) to derive the inhalation unit risk. The purpose of this research is to utilize analysis of a 10-year update of the Union Carbide Corporation (UCC) EO 2053 chemical worker cohort to examine the epidemiological evidence for the shape of the exposure-response model for EO. This updated UCC study provides an external dataset that is informative given high average cumulative exposures (67 ppm-years), extensive average follow-up of over 40 years, and number of male lymphoid cancer deaths (25) comparable to that observed in the NIOSH cohort. This independent analysis of a different cohort using continuous dose response modeling with cumulative or log cumulative exposure metrics provides no empirical support for a steep curve at low exposures. Furthermore, analyses of the categorical odds ratio estimates across different updates of the UCC cohort and for each sex in the NIOSH cohort provide further epidemiological evidence that the standard CPH model more plausibly describes the relationship between EO exposures and lymphoid mortality for both cohorts.
最近两份关于环氧乙烷(EO)的癌症风险评估报告均基于美国国家职业安全与健康研究所(NIOSH)对消毒工人进行的同一项流行病学研究,但尽管采用了相同的默认线性(无阈值)外推假设,两份报告得出的癌症风险估计值却相差三个数量级。造成这种差异的一个主要原因是,在推导吸入单位风险时使用了不同的暴露-反应模型(即标准的Cox比例风险模型[CPH]与初始斜率较陡的两段式线性样条模型)。本研究的目的是利用对联合碳化物公司(UCC)环氧乙烷2053化学工人队列10年更新数据的分析,来检验环氧乙烷暴露-反应模型形状的流行病学证据。这项更新后的UCC研究提供了一个外部数据集,鉴于其较高的平均累积暴露量(67 ppm-年)、超过40年的广泛平均随访以及男性淋巴癌死亡人数(25例)与NIOSH队列中观察到的人数相当,该数据集具有参考价值。使用累积或对数累积暴露指标进行连续剂量反应建模,对不同队列进行独立分析,没有为低暴露水平下的陡峭曲线提供实证支持。此外,对UCC队列不同更新数据以及NIOSH队列中各性别人群的分类优势比估计进行分析,提供了进一步的流行病学证据,表明标准CPH模型更合理地描述了两个队列中环氧乙烷暴露与淋巴死亡率之间的关系。