Niyomugabo Pauline, Li Lanhai, Mind'je Richard, Muhirwa Fabien, Maniraho Albert Poponi
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 818 South Beijing Road, Urumqi, 830011, China.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.
Environ Monit Assess. 2025 Jun 3;197(7):721. doi: 10.1007/s10661-025-14169-1.
Understanding the factors that influence changes in ecosystem services is crucial for sustainable management, particularly in densely populated and vulnerable regions to those influencing factors. Recent declines in ecosystem services in Rwanda have been primarily attributed to climate change and land use alterations stemming from human activities. This study investigates the spatio-temporal changes in ecosystem services, specifically carbon storage, water yield, and soil retention, from 1994 to 2020 using the InVEST and RUSLE models. The results revealed a significant increase in cropland and built-up areas by 137% and 282.3%, respectively, contrasted with a dramatic decline in forestland of 64.7% and decreases in grasslands and wetlands by 32.9% and 6.9%, respectively. In terms of temporal changes, water yield declined from 407 to 228.9 MT, while carbon storage and soil retention exhibited fluctuations during 1994 and 2020. The Northwestern province showed notable spatial changes in ecosystem services. The analysis revealed a strong positive correlation between soil retention and water yield but a negative correlation between carbon storage and precipitation, indicating that land use changes have a more significant impact on carbon storage than climatic factors. To improve ecosystem service stability, strategies such as forest expansion, environmental protection, and careful urban planning are recommended, while caution against inappropriate cropland development and urbanization is advised.
了解影响生态系统服务变化的因素对于可持续管理至关重要，特别是在那些受这些影响因素影响的人口密集和脆弱地区。卢旺达近期生态系统服务的下降主要归因于气候变化和人类活动导致的土地利用变化。本研究使用InVEST和RUSLE模型调查了1994年至2020年期间生态系统服务的时空变化，具体包括碳储存、产水量和土壤保持。结果显示，耕地和建成区分别显著增加了137%和282.3%，而林地则急剧下降了64.7%，草地和湿地分别减少了32.9%和6.9%。在时间变化方面，产水量从407吨下降到228.9吨，而碳储存在1994年至2020年期间呈现波动。西北部省份的生态系统服务呈现出显著的空间变化。分析表明，土壤保持与产水量之间存在强烈的正相关，而碳储存与降水量之间存在负相关，这表明土地利用变化对碳储存的影响比气候因素更为显著。为提高生态系统服务的稳定性，建议采取森林扩张、环境保护和谨慎的城市规划等策略，同时要警惕不当的耕地开发和城市化。
