Zhang Ya-Jun, Li Pei, Zhang Meng, Yang Fan
College of Land and Resources, Hebei Agricultural University, Baoding 071001, China.
School of Water and Environment, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710054, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2025 Jun 8;46(6):3619-3631. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202405140.
Clarifying the impacts of climate changes and human activities on vegetation dynamics is of significant importance to environmental resource managements, as vegetation undergoes notable changes under the dual influences of the two factors. Based on MODIS NDVI data, meteorological data, and human activity intensity (HAI) characterized by land cover data from 2000 to 2020, this study used methods such as trend analysis, Hurst index, partial correlation analysis, bivariate spatial autocorrelation, and random forest modeling. The impact mechanisms and contributions of climate changes and human activities on vegetation dynamics in Shaanxi Province as a whole and in its three regions (northern Shaanxi, central Shaanxi, and southern Shaanxi) were investigated. The results showed as follows: ① From 2000 to 2020, the average NDVI value in Shaanxi Province was 0.71, with a higher value in southern Shaanxi, followed by those in central and northern Shaanxi. During the study period, the overall NDVI of Shaanxi Province and its three regions showed an increasing trend, with a significant improvement in vegetation covering 87.1% of the area, of which 32.7% had a sustainable improvement trend. The most noticeable improvement in vegetation was observed in northern Shaanxi. ② The NDVI responded differently to various climatic factors. Precipitation and average temperature primarily promoted vegetation, while solar radiation had an inhibitory effect. ③ From 2000 to 2020, the average HAI value in Shaanxi Province was 0.06, with a higher value in central Shaanxi, followed by those in northern and southern Shaanxi, and exhibited an increasing trend over time. The cluster patterns were mainly described as high-low, low-high, and low-low in the northern, central, and southern Shaanxi regions, respectively. ④ The NDVI change rates under climate change and human activities were 0.005 4 a and 0.000 5 a, respectively, with their contribution rate being 91.5% and 8.5%, in Shaanxi Province. In the three regions, climate change contributed positively to vegetation change, with the highest contribution observed in northern Shaanxi. Human activities contributed positively in northern and southern Shaanxi, with the highest contribution in northern Shaanxi, while in the central region, human activities showed a negative contribution. The vegetation dynamics in Shaanxi Province were influenced by both climate change and human activities, but the impact mechanisms varied across different regions. It is essential to develop scientifically tailored ecological protection plans based on the specific conditions of each region.
阐明气候变化和人类活动对植被动态的影响对于环境资源管理具有重要意义,因为植被在这两个因素的双重影响下会发生显著变化。基于2000年至2020年的MODIS归一化植被指数(NDVI)数据、气象数据以及以土地覆盖数据表征的人类活动强度(HAI),本研究采用了趋势分析、赫斯特指数、偏相关分析、双变量空间自相关和随机森林建模等方法。研究了气候变化和人类活动对陕西省整体及其三个地区(陕北、关中和陕南)植被动态的影响机制和贡献。结果如下:①2000年至2020年,陕西省平均NDVI值为0.71,陕南地区值较高,其次是关中和陕北地区。研究期间,陕西省及其三个地区的总体NDVI呈上升趋势,植被覆盖面积有显著改善,其中87.1%的区域植被有可持续改善趋势,植被改善最明显的是陕北地区。②NDVI对不同气候因子的响应不同。降水和平均温度主要促进植被生长,而太阳辐射有抑制作用。③2000年至2020年,陕西省平均HAI值为0.06,关中地区值较高,其次是陕北和陕南地区,且随时间呈上升趋势。陕北、关中和陕南地区的聚类模式分别主要表现为高-低、低-高和低-低。④在陕西省,气候变化和人类活动下NDVI的变化率分别为0.005 4/a和0.000 5/a,其贡献率分别为91.5%和8.5%。在三个地区中,气候变化对植被变化有正向贡献,陕北地区贡献最高。人类活动在陕北和陕南地区有正向贡献,陕北地区贡献最高,而在关中地区,人类活动呈现负向贡献。陕西省的植被动态受气候变化和人类活动的共同影响,但不同地区的影响机制有所不同。根据各地区的具体情况制定科学合理的生态保护计划至关重要。