Ru Xutong, Qi Minghui, Xia Haoming, Qiao Longxin, Song Hongquan
State Key Laboratory of Spatial Datum, College of Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics Engineering, Faculty of Geographical Science and Engineering, Henan University, Zhengzhou 450046, China.
State Key Laboratory of Spatial Datum, College of Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics Engineering, Faculty of Geographical Science and Engineering, Henan University, Zhengzhou 450046, China; Henan Key Laboratory of Air Pollution Control and Ecological Security, College of Geographic Sciences, Faculty of Geographical Science and Engineering, Henan University, Kaifeng, 475004, China.
J Environ Manage. 2025 Aug;389:126026. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.126026. Epub 2025 Jun 2.
As global climate change intensifies and uncertainties for terrestrial ecosystems grow, it remains unclear how greenhouse gas emissions (GGE) and land use and cover change (LUCC) jointly shape future Gross Primary Productivity (GPP)-especially in critical regions such as the Yellow River Basin (YRB). Using a coupled modeling framework that integrates the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), we investigated GPP responses under moderate- (SSP245) and high-emission (SSP585) pathways for 2030 and 2060. Results indicated that GGE-driven warming and precipitation increases generally enhance basin-wide GPP, with particularly strong gains in regions such as Gansu, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, where climate conditions become both warmer and wetter. By comparison, LUCC-induced climate effects, though less pronounced at the basin scale, introduce spatially heterogeneous changes primarily through altered precipitation patterns rather than temperature shifts. Overall, while GGE remains the dominant force shaping large-scale GPP responses, LUCC-driven climatic variations can refine localized productivity outcomes. These findings offer insights into ecosystem productivity trajectories over regions such as the YRB in the world, where global warming and land management changes intersect, thereby informing conservation strategies and carbon neutrality policies.
随着全球气候变化加剧，陆地生态系统的不确定性增加，目前尚不清楚温室气体排放（GGE）和土地利用与覆盖变化（LUCC）如何共同塑造未来的总初级生产力（GPP），尤其是在黄河流域（YRB）等关键地区。我们使用一个耦合建模框架，该框架整合了天气研究与预报（WRF）模型和联合英国陆地环境模拟器（JULES），研究了2030年和2060年在中等排放情景（SSP245）和高排放情景（SSP585）下GPP的响应情况。结果表明，GGE驱动的变暖和降水增加总体上提高了流域范围内的GPP，在甘肃、宁夏和陕西等气候条件变得更温暖湿润的地区，GPP的增加尤为显著。相比之下，LUCC引起的气候效应虽然在流域尺度上不太明显，但主要通过改变降水模式而非温度变化引入了空间异质性变化。总体而言，虽然GGE仍然是塑造大规模GPP响应的主导力量，但LUCC驱动的气候变化可以细化局部生产力结果。这些发现为全球变暖与土地管理变化相互交织的黄河流域等地区的生态系统生产力轨迹提供了见解，从而为保护策略和碳中和政策提供了参考。
