Burden of mortality attributable to diurnal temperature range in Thailand: a nationwide case-crossover analysis from 2007 to 2021.

INTRODUCTION

Diurnal temperature range (DTR), the difference between daily maximum and minimum temperatures, has been increasingly recognized for its potential impact on human health. However, its contribution to mortality remains underexplored, particularly in tropical regions such as Thailand.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the burden of all-cause mortality attributable to variations in DTR in Thailand utilizing data from 2007 to 2021.

METHODOLOGY

Data on daily all-cause mortality (ICD-10: A00-R99), excluding accidental causes, were obtained from the Strategy and Planning Division under the Office of the Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Public Health between January 2007 and December 2021, while daily meteorological data were sourced from the Thai Meteorological Department during the same period. A two-stage statistical model was utilized to assess the relationship between DTR and mortality. In the first stage, a time-stratified case-crossover design with conditional Poisson regression model was applied to estimate the province-specific associations between DTR and mortality. In the second stage, these province-specific estimates were pooled using a multivariate meta-regression model to obtain the national-level estimate. Finally, the mortality burden attributable to variations in DTR was determined using a backward perspective based on the relative risks obtained from the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM).

RESULTS

During the study period, a total of 5,574,850 non-accidental cause of deaths was reported. The association between DTR and mortality followed a non-linear with U-shaped pattern, where the effect of DTR on mortality was higher at both low and high DTR levels. The fraction of mortality attributable to DTR at cumulative lag 0-7, 0-14, and 0-21 days was 1.88% (95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): 0.69-3.03), 2.39% (95% eCI: 0.75-3.99), and 4.67% (95% eCI: - 1.14-9.87), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings indicate that both low and high DTRs were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality in Thailand. This underscores the need to consider DTR as a significant climate-related health risk, particularly in tropical regions, to inform public health strategies aimed at reducing the burden of climate-related mortality.