Davis Robert E, Himmel Owen, Sims Parker K, Fuhrmann Christopher M
Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, P.O. Box 400123, Charlottesville, VA, 22904-4123, USA.
Southeast Regional Climate Center, Department of Geography and Environment, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, 27514, USA.
Int J Biometeorol. 2025 Apr;69(4):725-738. doi: 10.1007/s00484-025-02850-6. Epub 2025 Jan 30.
The relationship between diurnal temperature range (DTR) and daily mortality from 2005 to 2020 is examined for seven large metropolitan areas in Virginia using distributed lag non-linear models that control for temperature and humidity. The relative risk of mortality increases for very high DTR, and there is a short lag effect of several days. High risk DTR days are rare, typically occurring less than 1% of the time at most locations. These days primarily occur in spring and are characterized by high pressure and low humidity that allow overnight temperatures to drop substantially. High DTR days are often associated with elevated respiratory and cardiovascular mortality and tend to impact the elderly. The similarity between the mortality response to high DTR and that of high temperatures alone, coupled with the lack of clear physiological underpinnings, challenges the notion that these responses are independent. The prevalent spring peak in dangerous DTR days suggests that lack of acclimatization to hot and humid conditions may impose strain on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems.
利用控制温度和湿度的分布滞后非线性模型，研究了2005年至2020年弗吉尼亚州七个大城市地区的日温差（DTR）与每日死亡率之间的关系。极高的日温差会增加死亡的相对风险，并且存在几天的短期滞后效应。高风险的日温差天数很少见，在大多数地点通常出现的时间不到1%。这些日子主要发生在春季，其特征是高压和低湿度，使得夜间温度大幅下降。高日温差天数通常与呼吸道和心血管疾病死亡率升高有关，并且往往会影响老年人。对高日温差的死亡率反应与仅对高温的死亡率反应之间的相似性，再加上缺乏明确的生理基础，对这些反应是独立的这一观点提出了挑战。危险日温差天数普遍存在的春季高峰表明，缺乏对炎热潮湿条件的适应可能会给心血管和呼吸系统带来压力。
