Mbewe Nyuma, Imamura Tadatsugu, Sivile Suilanji, Sinkala Annel, Zulu Paul, Chanda Chitalu, Naik Neil, Kalima Nawa, Tepa Roy, Mwewa Kabaso, Kapololwe Kenneth, Mugala Anchindika, Mweemba Aggrey, Simwaba Davie, Kapina Muzala, Mwangilwa Kelvin, Nambeya Lalisa, Msiska Sophia, Choonga Aspha, Chirwa Bob, Mitsushima Shingo, Tsuchihashi Yuuki, Kapata Nathan, Kamigaki Taro, Mulenga Lloyd, Chilengi Roma
Cholera Incident Management System, Zambia National Public Health Institute, Lusaka, Zambia.
Project for Strengthening Laboratory-based Surveillance for Infectious Diseases, Japan International Cooperation Agency, Tokyo, Japan.
Open Forum Infect Dis. 2025 May 8;12(6):ofaf277. doi: 10.1093/ofid/ofaf277. eCollection 2025 Jun.
Zambia experienced the largest cholera outbreak in the country history in 2023-2024 in the capital, Lusaka. This study aimed to identify the clinical characteristics of the adult patients hospitalized at the community and referral cholera treatment centers (CTCs) to determine factors associated with their severe clinical outcomes during the outbreak.
Clinical information on the adult patients with cholera in the community and referral CTCs was retrospectively analyzed. Clinical factors associated with the fatal outcome were explored by multivariate analysis, using Firth's penalized logistic regression.
A total of 6578 adult cases were identified. The overall case fatality rate was 1.0% (51 of 5020), and it was highest in a referral CTC specializing in patients with underlying conditions (4.1% [32 of 772]). In the multivariate analysis, age (odds ratio, 1.05 [95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.09]), human immunodeficiency virus infections (5.68 [2.12-15.30]), diabetes mellitus (8.21 [1.38-34.00]), and severe dehydration at admission (5.97 [1.29-56.94]) were independently correlated with fatal outcomes.
Clinical factors, including age, underlying conditions, and disease severity at admission, were shown to be associated with severe clinical outcomes in adult patients with cholera. Enhanced case management strategies targeted for such high-risk groups might be beneficial in reducing the case fatality rate during cholera outbreaks.
赞比亚在2023 - 2024年于首都卢萨卡经历了该国历史上最大规模的霍乱疫情。本研究旨在确定在社区和转诊霍乱治疗中心(CTC)住院的成年患者的临床特征,以确定疫情期间与其严重临床结局相关的因素。
对社区和转诊CTC中成年霍乱患者的临床信息进行回顾性分析。采用Firth惩罚逻辑回归进行多变量分析,探讨与致命结局相关的临床因素。
共确定6578例成年病例。总体病死率为1.0%(5020例中的51例),在一家专门收治有基础疾病患者的转诊CTC中最高(4.1%[772例中的32例])。在多变量分析中,年龄(比值比,1.05[95%置信区间,1.02 - 1.09])、人类免疫缺陷病毒感染(5.68[2.12 - 15.30])、糖尿病(8.21[1.38 - 34.00])以及入院时严重脱水(5.97[1.29 - 56.94])与致命结局独立相关。
临床因素,包括年龄、基础疾病以及入院时疾病严重程度,被证明与成年霍乱患者的严重临床结局相关。针对此类高危人群加强病例管理策略可能有助于降低霍乱疫情期间的病死率。