Lucas Pablo M, Thuiller Wilfried, Talluto Lauren, Polaina Ester, Albrecht Jörg, Selva Nuria, De Barba Marta, Penteriani Vincenzo, Guéguen Maya, Balkenhol Niko, Dutta Trishna, Fedorca Ancuta, Frank Shane C, Zedrosser Andreas, Afonso-Jordana Ivan, Ambarlı Hüseyin, Ballesteros Fernando, Bashta Andriy-Taras, Bilgin Cemal Can, Bogdanović Neda, Bojārs Edgars, Bojarska Katarzyna, Bragalanti Natalia, Brøseth Henrik, Chynoweth Mark W, Ćirović Duško, Ciucci Paolo, Corradini Andrea, De Angelis Daniele, de Gabriel Hernando Miguel, Domokos Csaba, Dutsov Aleksander, Ertürk Alper, Filacorda Stefano, Frangini Lorenzo, Groff Claudio, Heikkinen Samuli, Hoxha Bledi, Huber Djuro, Huitu Otso, Ionescu Georgeta, Ionescu Ovidiu, Jerina Klemen, Jurj Ramon, Karamanlidis Alexandros A, Kindberg Jonas, Kojola Ilpo, López-Bao José Vicente, Männil Peep, Melovski Dime, Mertzanis Yorgos, Molinari Paolo, Molinari-Jobin Anja, Mustoni Andrea, Naves Javier, Ogurtsov Sergey, Özüt Deniz, Palazón Santiago, Pedrotti Luca, Perović Aleksandar, Piminov Vladimir N, Pop Ioan-Mihai, Popa Marius, Psaralexi Maria, Quenette Pierre-Yves, Rauer Georg, Reljic Slaven, Revilla Eloy, Saarma Urmas, Saveljev Alexander P, Sayar Ali Onur, Şekercioğlu Çagan H, Sergiel Agnieszka, Sîrbu George, Skrbinšek Tomaž, Skuban Michaela, Soyumert Anil, Stojanov Aleksandar, Tammeleht Egle, Tirronen Konstantin, Trajçe Aleksandër, Trbojević Igor, Trbojević Tijana, Zięba Filip, Zlatanova Diana, Zwijacz-Kozica Tomasz, Pollock Laura J
Institute of Nature Conservation, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland.
Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy.
Glob Chang Biol. 2025 Jun;31(6):e70252. doi: 10.1111/gcb.70252.
Biotic interactions are expected to influence species' responses to global changes, but they are rarely considered across broad spatial extents. Abiotic factors are thought to operate at larger spatial scales, while biotic factors, such as species interactions, are considered more important at local scales within communities, in part because of the knowledge gap on species interactions at large spatial scales (i.e., the Eltonian shortfall). We assessed, at a continental scale, (i) the importance of biotic interactions, through food webs, on species distributions, and (ii) how biotic interactions under scenarios of climate and land-use change may affect the distribution of the brown bear (Ursus arctos). We built a highly detailed, spatially dynamic, and empirically sampled food web based on the energy contribution of 276 brown bear food species from different taxa (plants, vertebrates, and invertebrates) and their ensemble habitat models at high resolution across Europe. Then, combining energy contribution and predicted habitat of food species, we modelled energy contribution across space and included these layers within Bayesian-based models of the brown bear distribution in Europe. The inclusion of biotic interactions considerably improved our understanding of brown bear distribution at large (continental) scales compared with Bayesian models including only abiotic factors (climate and land use). Predicted future range shifts, which included changes in the distribution of food species, varied greatly when considering various scenarios of change in biotic factors, providing a warning that future indirect climate and land-use change are likely to have strong but highly uncertain impacts on species biogeography. Our study confirmed that advancing our understanding of ecological networks of species interactions will improve future projections of biodiversity change, especially for modelling species distributions and their functional role under climate and land-use change scenarios, which is key for effective conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services.
生物相互作用预计会影响物种对全球变化的响应，但在广泛的空间范围内很少被考虑。非生物因素被认为在更大的空间尺度上起作用，而生物因素，如物种相互作用，在群落内的局部尺度上被认为更为重要，部分原因是在大空间尺度上存在物种相互作用的知识空白（即埃尔顿缺口）。我们在大陆尺度上评估了：（i）通过食物网，生物相互作用对物种分布的重要性；（ii）在气候和土地利用变化情景下，生物相互作用如何影响棕熊（Ursus arctos）的分布。我们基于来自不同分类群（植物、脊椎动物和无脊椎动物）的276种棕熊食物物种的能量贡献及其在欧洲高分辨率的整体栖息地模型，构建了一个高度详细、空间动态且基于实证采样的食物网。然后，结合食物物种的能量贡献和预测栖息地，我们对空间上的能量贡献进行建模，并将这些图层纳入基于贝叶斯的欧洲棕熊分布模型中。与仅包括非生物因素（气候和土地利用）的贝叶斯模型相比，纳入生物相互作用极大地增进了我们对大（大陆）尺度上棕熊分布的理解。当考虑生物因素变化的各种情景时，预测的未来范围变化（包括食物物种分布的变化）差异很大，这警示未来间接的气候和土地利用变化可能对物种生物地理学产生强烈但高度不确定的影响。我们的研究证实，增进对物种相互作用生态网络的理解将改善对生物多样性变化未来的预测，特别是对于模拟气候和土地利用变化情景下的物种分布及其功能作用而言，这是有效保护生物多样性和生态系统服务的关键。
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