Bas Maria, Ouled-Cheikh Jazel, Fuster-Alonso Alba, Julià Laura, March David, Ramírez Francisco, Cardona Luis, Coll Marta
Departament de Recursos Marins Renovables, Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM-CSIC), Passeig Marítim de la Barceloneta, Barcelona, Spain.
Departament de Biologia Evolutiva, Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals (BEECA), Facultat de Biologia, Institut de Recerca de la Biodiversitat (IRBio), Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
Glob Chang Biol. 2025 Feb;31(2):e70080. doi: 10.1111/gcb.70080.
Global change is rapidly reshaping species' habitat suitability ranges, hence leading to significant shifts in the distribution of marine life. Contrasting distributional responses among species can alter the spatial overlap between predators and prey, potentially disrupting trophic interactions and affecting food web dynamics. Here, we evaluate long-term changes in the spatial overlap of habitat suitability ranges for trophically related species, including crustaceans, fish, penguins, and pinnipeds across 12 Large Marine Ecosystems from the Southern Hemisphere, merged into three primary regions: South America, Southern Africa, Australia and New Zealand. To this aim, we first use Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) to hindcast and project species-specific changes in suitable habitat from 1850 to 2100 under two future climate scenarios: SSP1-2.6 (low climate forcing) and SSP5-8.5 (high climate forcing). We then analyze changes in species habitat suitability and potential predator-prey spatial overlaps. Findings reveal that marine species generally exhibit changes in their suitable habitats, with pronounced shifts towards higher latitudes under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. However, contrasting trends emerge among predators across functional groups and regions of South America, Southern Africa, Australia and New Zealand. These variations highlight the need for species and regional-specific management responses. We also project contrasting spatial mismatches between predators and prey: predators experiencing declines in suitable habitat tend to exhibit greater overlap with their prey in future scenarios, whereas those with expanding suitable habitat show reduced spatial overlap with their prey. This study provides valuable insights that can inform spatial management strategies in response to climate change and illustrate how climate change may weaken species' ability to adapt to climate-driven environmental changes due to trophic disruptions.
全球变化正在迅速重塑物种的栖息地适宜范围，从而导致海洋生物分布发生重大变化。物种间不同的分布响应会改变捕食者与猎物之间的空间重叠，有可能破坏营养相互作用并影响食物网动态。在此，我们评估了南半球12个大型海洋生态系统中营养相关物种（包括甲壳类动物、鱼类、企鹅和鳍足类动物）栖息地适宜范围的空间重叠的长期变化，这些生态系统合并为三个主要区域：南美洲、南部非洲、澳大利亚和新西兰。为此，我们首先使用增强回归树（BRT）在两种未来气候情景下（SSP1-2.6（低气候强迫）和SSP5-8.5（高气候强迫）），对1850年至2100年特定物种适宜栖息地的变化进行后推和预测。然后，我们分析物种栖息地适宜性和潜在捕食者 - 猎物空间重叠的变化。研究结果表明，海洋物种的适宜栖息地普遍发生变化，在SSP5-8.5情景下明显向高纬度转移。然而，南美洲、南部非洲、澳大利亚和新西兰不同功能组和区域的捕食者之间出现了不同的趋势。这些差异凸显了针对物种和区域制定特定管理对策的必要性。我们还预测了捕食者与猎物之间不同的空间错配情况：适宜栖息地减少的捕食者在未来情景中与猎物的重叠往往更大，而适宜栖息地扩大的捕食者与猎物的空间重叠则减少。这项研究提供了宝贵的见解，可为应对气候变化的空间管理策略提供参考，并说明了气候变化如何因营养破坏而削弱物种适应气候驱动的环境变化的能力。
