Perotti Viviana, Tittarelli Andrea, Contiero Paolo, Maso Luigino Dal, Pesce Maria Teresa, Zarcone Maurizio, Gili Alessio, Mazzucco Walter, Stracci Fabrizio, Crocetti Emanuele, Fabiano Sabrina
Cancer Registry Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori, Milan, Italy.
Environmental Epidemiology Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori, Milan, Italy.
Cancer Epidemiol. 2025 Aug;97:102855. doi: 10.1016/j.canep.2025.102855. Epub 2025 Jun 3.
Cancer incidence and mortality trends represent epidemiological indicators of fundamental importance for public health systems. The study's aim is to present recent (2013-2017) short-term cancer incidence and mortality trends in Italy, including 80 % of the Italian population, for different cancer sites by sex, age group, and areas. Joinpoint Regression models were employed. A significantly decreasing trend in the incidence of all cancers was observed for men in Italy (-1.9 % per year), particularly for cancers of the lung (-2.5 %), liver (-3.9 %), stomach (-2.8 %), colorectal (-2.2 %), prostate (-3.4 %), and leukaemias (-3.2 %). The only significant increase was seen for skin melanoma (+5.2 % per year). Among women, overall cancer incidence remained stable, with a decrease in the North (-0.6 %) and an increase in the South and Islands (+0.9 %). Decreasing trends were observed for colorectal (-1.9 %), stomach (-3.5 %), liver (-4.0 %%), and leukaemias (-2.0 %) cancers, while incidence increased for skin melanoma (+6.0 % per year), and lung cancer (2.3 %). Cancer mortality declined consistently in both sexes (-1.8 % per year in men and -0.6 % in women), across different areas, and age groups. The observed trends in men and women partly reflect the impact of risk factors affecting both sexes at different times, mainly in the case of tobacco and lung cancer. Also, some trends may be linked to organized screening initiatives (e.g. colorectal) or the decrease in opportunistic screening (e.g. prostate). The snapshot of cancer trends in Italy may highlight new opportunities for strengthening prevention activities and advancing research on early detection and target treatments.
癌症发病率和死亡率趋势是公共卫生系统至关重要的流行病学指标。该研究旨在呈现意大利近期（2013 - 2017年）不同癌症部位按性别、年龄组和地区划分的短期癌症发病率和死亡率趋势，涵盖了80%的意大利人口。采用了Joinpoint回归模型。在意大利，男性所有癌症的发病率呈现显著下降趋势（每年-1.9%），尤其是肺癌（-2.5%）、肝癌（-3.9%）、胃癌（-2.8%）、结直肠癌（-2.2%）、前列腺癌（-3.4%）和白血病（-3.2%）。唯一显著增加的是皮肤黑色素瘤（每年+5.2%）。在女性中，总体癌症发病率保持稳定，北部有所下降（-0.6%），南部和岛屿地区有所上升（+0.9%）。结直肠癌（-1.9%）、胃癌（-3.5%）、肝癌（-4.0%）和白血病（-2.0%）的发病率呈下降趋势，但皮肤黑色素瘤（每年+6.0%）和肺癌（2.3%）的发病率有所上升。癌症死亡率在不同性别、地区和年龄组中均持续下降（男性每年-1.8%，女性每年-0.6%）。观察到的男性和女性趋势部分反映了不同时期影响两性的风险因素的影响，主要是烟草与肺癌的情况。此外，一些趋势可能与有组织的筛查举措（如结直肠癌筛查）或机会性筛查的减少（如前列腺癌筛查）有关。意大利癌症趋势的简要情况可能突出加强预防活动以及推进早期检测和靶向治疗研究的新机遇。
