Feng Zhimin, Xin Haiqiang, Wang Yong, Liu Hairong
Urumqi Meteorological Satellite Ground Station, Urumqi, 830011, China.
Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi, 830002, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jun 4;15(1):19526. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-03574-8.
The Tianshan Mountains serve as a critical freshwater reservoir in Central Asia's arid region, playing a key role in regional ecological and economic development. To assess the response of the Tianshan Mountains to climate change, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics and altitudinal differentiation of land cover using land use transition matrices and annual change rate analysis to assess vegetation shifts under climate variability in the Aksu section of the Tianshan Mountains based on 30-m resolution land cover datasets from 1985, 2005, and 2020 integrated with climate data trends. By focusing on a 35-year period, this research captures significant climate variability and its influence on vegetation and land cover transitions. Notable changes were recorded, with forest areas expanding by 320.5 km due to increased temperatures and precipitation, grasslands decreasing by 1110.7 km, and snow/ice increasing by 242.8 km over the study period. Grasslands decreased, with much of this area transitioning to forests and snow/ice. These findings underscore the dual climatic influences of "warming" and "wetting", and the upward shifts in land cover boundaries. These findings distinguish the warming effect that promoted forest expansion from the wetting effect that enhanced snow/ice coverage, underscoring the climatic dual role in shaping high-altitude ecosystems. Innovative applications of land use transition matrices and altitudinal zonation analysis provide a quantitative foundation for understanding climate-induced vegetation shifts. Altitudinal zonation in the Aksu region above 2300 m exhibited a distinct pattern, transitioning from grassland at lower elevations to forest-grassland mosaics, bare land, and finally snow/ice at the highest elevations. These changes highlight the dominant role of climate variability in driving land cover changes over the study period. Furthermore, these findings underscore the ecological implications of grassland loss and forest encroachment. These findings offer critical insights for ecological conservation and sustainable resource management in arid mountain ecosystems.
天山是中亚干旱地区重要的淡水储备区，在区域生态和经济发展中发挥着关键作用。为评估天山对气候变化的响应，本研究利用土地利用转移矩阵和年变化率分析，基于1985年、2005年和2020年30米分辨率的土地覆盖数据集，并结合气候数据趋势，分析土地覆盖的时空动态和海拔差异，以评估天山阿克苏段在气候变率下的植被变化。通过聚焦35年的时间段，本研究捕捉到了显著的气候变率及其对植被和土地覆盖变化的影响。研究期间记录到显著变化，森林面积因气温和降水量增加而扩大了320.5平方千米，草地面积减少了1110.7平方千米，冰雪面积增加了242.8平方千米。草地面积减少，其中大部分区域转变为森林和冰雪。这些发现凸显了“变暖”和“变湿”的双重气候影响，以及土地覆盖边界的向上移动。这些发现区分了促进森林扩张的变暖效应和增强冰雪覆盖的变湿效应，强调了气候在塑造高海拔生态系统中的双重作用。土地利用转移矩阵和海拔分区分析的创新应用为理解气候引起的植被变化提供了定量基础。阿克苏地区海拔2300米以上的海拔分区呈现出明显的模式，从较低海拔的草地过渡到森林-草地镶嵌体、裸地，最终在最高海拔处变为冰雪。这些变化突出了气候变率在研究期间驱动土地覆盖变化中的主导作用。此外，这些发现强调了草地流失和森林 encroachment 的生态影响。这些发现为干旱山区生态系统的生态保护和可持续资源管理提供了关键见解。
