Law Alexandra H T, Presanis Anne M, Cheung Justin K, Wu Peng, Schooling C Mary, Cowling Benjamin J, Wong Jessica Y
World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China.
MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
Lancet Reg Health West Pac. 2025 May 8;58:101571. doi: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2025.101571. eCollection 2025 May.
Hong Kong has one of the longest life expectancies in the world but was heavily impacted by COVID-19 in 2022. We aimed to estimate patterns in mortality rates and changes in life expectancy in Hong Kong during the COVID-19 pandemic.
We constructed sex-specific life tables from 1998 to 2023 using parametric bootstrapping to account for statistical uncertainty in mortality rates. We used Arriaga's decomposition method to estimate age- and cause-specific contributions to overall changes in life expectancy for 2020-2023, with 2019 as the reference year. We also estimated cause-specific mortality rates.
Hong Kong reported 50,666 deaths in 2020, 51,354 in 2021, 63,692 in 2022, and 54,731 in 2023. Estimates of life expectancy in males and females in 2020 and 2021 were similar to the pre-pandemic trend from 1998 to 2019 but declined significantly in 2022. Compared to the pre-pandemic trend, the 2022 values of 80.4 years for males and 86.4 years for females corresponded to reductions by 2.22 (95% CI: 2.08, 2.36) years in males and 2.30 (95% CI: 2.17, 2.43) years in females. The loss in life expectancy in 2022 was mainly attributed to increased respiratory mortality rates, with a negative contribution to life expectancy of 1.47 and 1.26 years for males and females respectively. In 2023 life expectancy increased by 0.60 (95% CI: 0.46, 0.75) years in males and by 1.10 (95% CI: 0.95, 1.26) years in females.
In 2022 a very high respiratory mortality rate in older adults in Hong Kong during the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a reduction in life expectancy by more than 2 years. In 2023 life expectancy increased towards the pre-pandemic trend.
Health and Medical Research Fund, Hong Kong.
香港拥有世界上最长的预期寿命之一，但在2022年受到新冠疫情的严重影响。我们旨在估计新冠疫情期间香港的死亡率模式和预期寿命变化。
我们使用参数自举法构建了1998年至2023年按性别划分的生命表，以考虑死亡率的统计不确定性。我们使用阿里亚加分解法估计2020 - 2023年按年龄和病因对预期寿命总体变化的贡献，以2019年作为参考年份。我们还估计了特定病因的死亡率。
香港在2020年报告了50666例死亡，2021年为51354例，2022年为63692例，2023年为54731例。2020年和2021年男性和女性的预期寿命估计与1998年至2019年疫情前的趋势相似，但在2022年显著下降。与疫情前的趋势相比，2022年男性预期寿命80.4岁、女性预期寿命86.4岁，分别对应男性减少2.22（95%置信区间：2.08, 2.36）岁、女性减少2.30（95%置信区间：2.17, 2.43）岁。2022年预期寿命的损失主要归因于呼吸道死亡率上升，男性和女性分别对预期寿命产生了-1.47岁和-1.26岁的负贡献。2023年，男性预期寿命增加了0.60（95%置信区间：0.46, 0.75）岁，女性增加了1.10（95%置信区间：0.95, 1.26）岁。
2022年新冠疫情期间香港老年人极高的呼吸道死亡率与预期寿命减少超过2年有关。2023年预期寿命朝着疫情前的趋势增加。
香港健康及医学研究基金。
