Więcławski Jacek
Institute of Political Science, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Feliksa Szrajbera 11, 10-007 Olsztyn, Poland.
Int Polit (Hague). 2022;59(6):1210-1231. doi: 10.1057/s41311-021-00360-x. Epub 2021 Oct 29.
This article discusses the plausibility of historical analogies and general theoretical schemes in the study on contemporary international processes. It explains how the complex character of contemporary international relations modifies the previous role of theoretical generalizations and lessons from the past. The uncertainty of contemporary international processes, including the waves of global economic, social and political turbulences, makes the general theoretical schemes more tentative. It reduces the role played by historical analogies which become more risky and potentially inconclusive. They change their initial explanatory functions. The novelty and past experience intertwine in the analysis of contemporary international phenomena, yet the elements of uncertainty and novelty prevail. Theories respond to these challenges with flexibility and pragmatism, including some "middle ground" positions. Their ideas are valuable, but do not change the article's conclusion that general theoretical schemes and historical analogies offer a limited practical advice in the study on contemporary international relations.
本文探讨了历史类比和一般理论方案在当代国际进程研究中的合理性。它解释了当代国际关系的复杂性质如何改变了理论概括和历史教训先前的作用。当代国际进程的不确定性，包括全球经济、社会和政治动荡的浪潮，使得一般理论方案更具试探性。它降低了历史类比所起的作用，因为历史类比变得更具风险且可能没有定论。它们改变了最初的解释功能。在当代国际现象的分析中，新颖性与过去的经验相互交织，但不确定性和新颖性的因素占主导地位。理论以灵活性和务实性应对这些挑战，包括一些“中间立场”。它们的观点很有价值，但并没有改变本文的结论，即在当代国际关系研究中，一般理论方案和历史类比提供的实际建议有限。
