Borio Claudio
Bank for International Settlements, Basel, Switzerland.
Bus Econ. 2020;55(4):181-190. doi: 10.1057/s11369-020-00184-2. Epub 2020 Sep 24.
The Covid-19 crisis is unique in several respects. This devastating recession does not have an economic origin, will dance largely to the tune of non-economic factors, and is truly global. The policy response has been equally unique, in terms of speed, size and scope, eliciting an unprecedented concerted effort combining monetary, fiscal and prudential policies. This has contained the fallout. At the time of writing, financial markets have rebounded to the point of looking exuberant, but it all feels more like a truce than a peace treaty. The crisis is transitioning from the liquidity to the solvency phase in a context of limited and shrinking room for policy manoeuvre. All this raises difficult near- and longer-term challenges. Rebuilding policy buffers in all policy areas is likely to be policy challenge of the decade ahead.
新冠疫情危机在几个方面都很独特。这场毁灭性的衰退并非源于经济因素，很大程度上将受非经济因素左右，而且是真正全球性的。政策应对同样独特，在速度、规模和范围方面都堪称空前，引发了一场前所未有的协同努力，将货币政策、财政政策和审慎政策结合在一起。这遏制了负面影响。在撰写本文时，金融市场已反弹至看似繁荣的程度，但这一切感觉更像是休战而非和平条约。在政策回旋空间有限且不断缩小的背景下，危机正从流动性阶段过渡到偿付能力阶段。所有这些都带来了艰难的近期和长期挑战。在所有政策领域重建政策缓冲可能是未来十年的政策挑战。
