Muraviev Alexey D, Ahlawat Dalbir, Hughes Lindsay
School of Media, Creative Arts and Social Inquiry, Curtin University, Building 209, Room 313, Bentley, WA 6102 Australia.
Department of Security Studies and Criminology, 25 Wally's Walk, Macquarie University, Level 5, Room 544, North Ryde, NSW 2109 Australia.
Int Polit (Hague). 2022;59(6):1119-1138. doi: 10.1057/s41311-021-00350-z. Epub 2021 Sep 4.
India currently faces a security dilemma specifically because of the rise of China, Russia's strategic convergence with China, and the US's indeterminate Indo-Pacific policy stance. To overcome this dilemma, India's shift from non-alignment to strategic autonomy poses several questions about its future strategic orientation, notably: Will India enter into a formal alliance with the USA, will India continue to engage China, will India retain close historical relations with Russia or will it more robustly pursue its 'Act East' policy? This article attempts a critical analysis of the different strategic options available to India and argues that while entering into a quasi-alliance with the USA, it will retain its strategic autonomy. India could simultaneously retain relations with Russia, China and the ASEAN. However, to the extent possible, its tendency will be to support a multipolar-Asia paradigm rather than a zero-sum alliance system to play a leading role in international fora.
印度目前面临着安全困境，特别是由于中国的崛起、俄罗斯与中国的战略趋同以及美国在印太地区不确定的政策立场。为克服这一困境，印度从不结盟转向战略自主，这对其未来的战略取向提出了几个问题，特别是：印度会与美国结成正式联盟吗？印度会继续与中国接触吗？印度会保持与俄罗斯的密切历史关系，还是会更积极地推行其“东向行动”政策？本文试图对印度可选择的不同战略进行批判性分析，并认为印度在与美国结成准联盟的同时，将保留其战略自主性。印度可以同时保持与俄罗斯、中国和东盟的关系。然而，在可能的情况下，其倾向将是支持多极亚洲范式，而不是零和联盟体系，以便在国际舞台上发挥主导作用。
