Melo Patrícia C
ISEG-Lisbon School of Economics and Management University of Lisbon and REM/UECE Lisbon Portugal.
Reg Sci Policy Prac. 2022 Mar 11. doi: 10.1111/rsp3.12518.
This study discusses the possible effects of two major COVID-19 disruptions - that is, the widespread adoption of working from home and the 'bio-security' fear affecting public transport - on travel patterns in Lisbon urban agglomeration. Drawing on evidence from the literature on the effects of teleworking on travel demand and the determinants of public transport, together with the analysis of travel data before and during the pandemic, the study concludes that the pandemic may hinder, more than aid, the transition to a sustainable mobility paradigm in Lisbon and its metropolitan area. The analysis of monthly travel demand shows that car use has recovered at a faster rate than public transport use, reaching pre-pandemic levels in some of the main arterial roads serving Lisbon. There appears to be a substitution of public transport trips by both driving and active micromobility. The main losers so far are public transport operators: the pandemic increased operating deficits and the need for additional public subsidies, putting at risk the future financial sustainability of public transport. Without serious commitment by local and national governments, the pandemic is likely to be another missed opportunity to transition to a better, more sustainable, urban mobility system.
本研究探讨了新冠疫情的两大主要干扰因素——即广泛采用的居家办公模式以及影响公共交通的“生物安全”担忧——对里斯本城市群出行模式的可能影响。该研究借鉴了有关远程办公对出行需求的影响以及公共交通决定因素的文献证据，并结合了疫情前和疫情期间的出行数据分析，得出结论认为，疫情对里斯本及其大都市区向可持续出行模式的转变可能起到阻碍作用，而非促进作用。对月度出行需求的分析表明，汽车使用量的恢复速度快于公共交通使用量，在服务于里斯本的一些主要干道上，汽车使用量已达到疫情前水平。公共交通出行似乎被自驾出行和电动微出行所取代。到目前为止，主要的受害者是公共交通运营商：疫情增加了运营赤字以及对额外公共补贴的需求，危及公共交通未来的财务可持续性。如果地方和国家政府不做出认真承诺，疫情很可能成为向更好、更可持续的城市交通系统转型的又一次错失的机遇。
