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河南省小麦成熟期降水及驱动力的时空变化

Spatiotemporal variations of precipitation and driving forces during wheat maturation season in Henan Province.

作者信息

Zhang Zezhong, Guo Hengzhi, Qi Qingqing, Luo Xudong, Zhang Weijie, Feng Kai, Wang Fei, Liu Jian

机构信息

School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, 450046, China.

Yinshanbeilu Grassland Eco-Hydrology National Observation and Research Station, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, 100038, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Jun 6;15(1):19902. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-04895-4.

DOI:10.1038/s41598-025-04895-4
PMID:40481114
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12144184/
Abstract

Since entering the twenty-first century, global warming has continued to escalate, and the frequency of rainfall occurrence during the wheat maturity period has increased significantly, which has seriously threatened the yield of wheat. In this study, based on the rainfall data and a variety of remote correlation factors during the wheat maturation period in Henan Province from 2000 to 2022, we comprehensively explored the spatial and temporal characteristics of wheat maturation rain and its drivers in Henan Province by using the Pettitt method, the Morlet wavelet method, the center of gravity model, and cross-wavelets. The results show that: (1) the wheat maturation rain in Henan Province shows an upward trend, the mutation point is mainly concentrated in 2013, and the cycle change is characterized by a small scale; (2) The multi-year averages of total rainfall, maximum daily rainfall and rainfall intensity in the southern part of Henan Province during the wheat-yellow period were all the highest, and the number of rainfall days also showed a significant upward trend; (3) In 2013 wheat maturation rain in Henan Province, the center of gravity of daily rainfall was mainly concentrated in northwestern Henan Province, and the typical rainfall event mainly experienced five processes of occurrence-intensification-dissipation-re-intensification-dissipation; (4) Total rainfall, maximum daily rainfall and rainfall intensity had the highest correlation with sunspot, and overall sunspot had the greatest impact on wheat maturation rain. By analyzing the spatial and temporal characteristics of wheat maturation rain and further revealing its driving mechanism, it is of great significance to understand the ability of wheat to adapt to climate change and ensure food security.

摘要

进入21世纪以来，全球气候变暖不断加剧，小麦成熟期降雨发生频次显著增加，严重威胁小麦产量。本研究基于2000—2022年河南省小麦成熟期的降雨资料及多种遥相关因子，利用佩蒂特（Pettitt）法、莫雷特（Morlet）小波法、重心模型和交叉小波，综合探究河南省小麦成熟期降雨的时空特征及其驱动因素。结果表明：（1）河南省小麦成熟期降雨呈上升趋势，突变点主要集中在2013年，周期变化呈小尺度特征；（2）豫南地区小麦灌浆期总降雨量、日最大降雨量和降雨强度多年平均值均最高，降雨日数也呈显著上升趋势；（3）2013年河南省小麦成熟期降雨，日降雨量重心主要集中在豫西北地区，典型降雨过程主要经历发生—增强—消散—再增强—再消散5个过程；（4）总降雨量、日最大降雨量和降雨强度与太阳黑子的相关性最高，总体上太阳黑子对小麦成熟期降雨影响最大。通过分析小麦成熟期降雨的时空特征并进一步揭示其驱动机制，对于了解小麦适应气候变化能力、保障粮食安全具有重要意义。

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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5abe/12144184/cd6b30867465/41598_2025_4895_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5abe/12144184/4f13f7240f49/41598_2025_4895_Fig9_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5abe/12144184/65603d31776c/41598_2025_4895_Fig10_HTML.jpg
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