文献检索文档翻译深度研究
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件
邀请有礼套餐&价格历史记录

新学期,新优惠

限时优惠:9月1日-9月22日

30天高级会员仅需29元

1天体验卡首发特惠仅需5.99元

了解详情
不再提醒
插件&应用
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件浏览器插件Mac 客户端Windows 客户端微信小程序
高级版
套餐订阅购买积分包
AI 工具
文献检索文档翻译深度研究
关于我们
关于 Suppr公司介绍联系我们用户协议隐私条款
关注我们

Suppr 超能文献

核心技术专利:CN118964589B侵权必究
粤ICP备2023148730 号-1Suppr @ 2025

中国其他肌肉骨骼疾病的趋势及未来负担(1990 - 2041年):利用全球疾病负担数据与二十国集团国家的比较分析

Trends and future burden of other musculoskeletal diseases in China (1990-2041): a comparative analysis with G20 countries using GBD data.

作者信息

Lu Meifeng, Zheng GuiHao, Shen Xin, Ouyang Yulong, Hu Bei, Chen Shuilin, Sun Guicai

机构信息

Department of Sports Medicine, Orthopaedic Hospital, The First Affiliated Hospital, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, No.17, Yongwai Street, Donghu District, Nanchang, 330006, China.

Department of Orthopedics, Jiujiang City Key Laboratory of Cell Therapy, The First People's Hospital of Jiujiang, Jiujiang, 332000, China.

出版信息

BMC Public Health. 2025 Jun 6;25(1):2120. doi: 10.1186/s12889-025-23285-z.


DOI:10.1186/s12889-025-23285-z
PMID:40481429
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12142966/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Other musculoskeletal diseases (OMSDs), as a critical component of the global public health challenge, remain understudied in China. This study aims to systematically analyze the epidemiological characteristics and future trends of OMSDs in China from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study(GBD) 2021, this research focused on prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs), which were compared with G20 countries. Joinpoint regression was used to identify trend breakpoints, age-period-cohort analysis evaluated the independent effects of age, period, and cohort, and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model predicted the disease burden through 2041. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2021, both age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR) and YLDs rates(ASYR) of OMSDs in China showed upward trends. Two critical turning points in ASPR occurred during 2000-2005 (APC = 1.5%, 95% CI: 1.4-1.6) and 2005-2009 (APC = 0.9%, 95% CI: 0.7-1.0). Age effects indicated that relative risk (RR) first increased and then decreased with age, peaking at 60-64 years (RR = 3.62, 95% CI: 3.62-3.63). Period effects showed a rising trend, while cohort effects revealed declining prevalence and YLDs rates. Projections suggest a gradual increase in burden indicators through 2041. Compared to other G20 countries, China ranked eighth from the bottom in disease burden, approaching the level of Germany. CONCLUSION: The burden of OMSDs in China continues to rise, particularly among women and the elderly. Although the current burden is at a mid-range level among G20 nations, population aging will exacerbate future challenges. To address this, advocating for healthy lifestyles, strengthening health education, and optimizing healthcare strategies are essential.

摘要

背景:其他肌肉骨骼疾病(OMSDs)作为全球公共卫生挑战的重要组成部分,在中国仍未得到充分研究。本研究旨在系统分析1990年至2021年中国OMSDs的流行病学特征和未来趋势。 方法:基于全球疾病负担研究(GBD)2021的数据,本研究聚焦于患病率和伤残调整生命年(YLDs),并与二十国集团(G20)国家进行比较。采用Joinpoint回归确定趋势断点,年龄-时期-队列分析评估年龄、时期和队列的独立影响,自回归积分移动平均(ARIMA)模型预测到2041年的疾病负担。 结果:1990年至2021年期间,中国OMSDs的年龄标准化患病率(ASPR)和YLDs率(ASYR)均呈上升趋势。ASPR出现两个关键转折点,分别在2000 - 2005年(年度百分比变化[APC]=1.5%,95%置信区间[CI]:1.4 - 1.6)和2005 - 2009年(APC = 0.9%,95% CI:0.7 - 1.0)。年龄效应表明,相对风险(RR)随年龄先升高后降低,在60 - 64岁达到峰值(RR = 3.62,95% CI:3.62 - 3.63)。时期效应呈上升趋势,而队列效应显示患病率和YLDs率呈下降趋势。预测表明,到2041年负担指标将逐渐增加。与其他G20国家相比,中国的疾病负担排名倒数第八,接近德国的水平。 结论:中国OMSDs的负担持续上升,尤其是在女性和老年人中。尽管目前的负担在G20国家中处于中等水平,但人口老龄化将加剧未来的挑战。为此,倡导健康的生活方式、加强健康教育和优化医疗保健策略至关重要。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fd85/12142966/c1b76ed8a10d/12889_2025_23285_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fd85/12142966/4381c36c4d53/12889_2025_23285_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fd85/12142966/8aaaa6048334/12889_2025_23285_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fd85/12142966/20c7785aa6e9/12889_2025_23285_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fd85/12142966/236a1b3bdbbf/12889_2025_23285_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fd85/12142966/eb625f1e2e54/12889_2025_23285_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fd85/12142966/86a6c4817840/12889_2025_23285_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fd85/12142966/0d2b5fe62c5e/12889_2025_23285_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fd85/12142966/c1b76ed8a10d/12889_2025_23285_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fd85/12142966/4381c36c4d53/12889_2025_23285_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fd85/12142966/8aaaa6048334/12889_2025_23285_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fd85/12142966/20c7785aa6e9/12889_2025_23285_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fd85/12142966/236a1b3bdbbf/12889_2025_23285_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fd85/12142966/eb625f1e2e54/12889_2025_23285_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fd85/12142966/86a6c4817840/12889_2025_23285_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fd85/12142966/0d2b5fe62c5e/12889_2025_23285_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fd85/12142966/c1b76ed8a10d/12889_2025_23285_Fig8_HTML.jpg

相似文献

[1]
Trends and future burden of other musculoskeletal diseases in China (1990-2041): a comparative analysis with G20 countries using GBD data.

BMC Public Health. 2025-6-6

[2]
Analysis and comparison of the trends in burden of spinal cord injury in China and worldwide from 1990 to 2021: an analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021.

Front Public Health. 2025-1-7

[3]
Comparison of trend analysis of varicella zoster disease burden between China and the world 1990-2021 and disease burden forecast 2030.

Front Public Health. 2025-3-10

[4]
Long-term trends and comparison of the burden of lower respiratory tract infections in China and globally from 1990 to 2021: an analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease study 2021.

Front Public Health. 2024-12-10

[5]
Long-term trends in the burden of multiple myeloma in China: a Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis based on GBD 2021.

Front Public Health. 2025-2-12

[6]
Long-term trends in the burden of asthma in China: a joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis based on the GBD 2021.

Respir Res. 2025-2-15

[7]
Long-term trends in the burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China: A comprehensive analysis from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2030 based on the global burden of disease study 2021.

Radiother Oncol. 2025-1

[8]
Trends and Projections of Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer Burden in China, 1990-2036: Findings From the Global Burden of Disease 2021 Study.

Cancer Control. 2025

[9]
Trends in burden and mortality of congenital birth defects in G20 countries (1990-2021) and predictions for 2022-2040.

BMC Pregnancy Childbirth. 2025-4-25

[10]
Temporal trends in the burden of musculoskeletal diseases in China from 1990 to 2021 and predictions for 2021 to 2030.

Bone. 2025-2

引用本文的文献

[1]
Temporal Trends of Polycystic Ovary Syndrome Burden in the East and Southeast Asia from 1990 to 2021: An Analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Int J Womens Health. 2025-7-15

本文引用的文献

[1]
Prevalence and association of musculoskeletal disorders with various risk factors among older Indian adults: Insights from a nationally representative survey.

PLoS One. 2024

[2]
Age-period-cohort analysis of epidemiological trends in pelvic fracture in China from 1992 to 2021 and forecasts for 2046.

Front Public Health. 2024

[3]
Global pattern, trend, and cross-country inequality of early musculoskeletal disorders from 1990 to 2019, with projection from 2020 to 2050.

Med. 2024-8-9

[4]
Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Lancet. 2024-5-18

[5]
Burden of intracerebral haemorrhage in Europe: forecasting incidence and mortality between 2019 and 2050.

Lancet Reg Health Eur. 2024-2-9

[6]
Burden of osteoarthritis in China, 1990-2017: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

Lancet Rheumatol. 2020-3

[7]
Global, regional, and national burden of other musculoskeletal disorders, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Lancet Rheumatol. 2023-10-23

[8]
Global, regional and national temporal trends in prevalence for musculoskeletal disorders in women of childbearing age, 1990-2019: an age-period-cohort analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Ann Rheum Dis. 2024-1-2

[9]
Telework-related risk factors for musculoskeletal disorders.

Front Public Health. 2023

[10]
Global burden and risk factors of musculoskeletal disorders among adolescents and young adults in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019.

Autoimmun Rev. 2023-8

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索

推荐工具

医学文档翻译智能文献检索