Lu Meifeng, Zheng GuiHao, Shen Xin, Ouyang Yulong, Hu Bei, Chen Shuilin, Sun Guicai
Department of Sports Medicine, Orthopaedic Hospital, The First Affiliated Hospital, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, No.17, Yongwai Street, Donghu District, Nanchang, 330006, China.
Department of Orthopedics, Jiujiang City Key Laboratory of Cell Therapy, The First People's Hospital of Jiujiang, Jiujiang, 332000, China.
BMC Public Health. 2025 Jun 6;25(1):2120. doi: 10.1186/s12889-025-23285-z.
BACKGROUND: Other musculoskeletal diseases (OMSDs), as a critical component of the global public health challenge, remain understudied in China. This study aims to systematically analyze the epidemiological characteristics and future trends of OMSDs in China from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study(GBD) 2021, this research focused on prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs), which were compared with G20 countries. Joinpoint regression was used to identify trend breakpoints, age-period-cohort analysis evaluated the independent effects of age, period, and cohort, and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model predicted the disease burden through 2041. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2021, both age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR) and YLDs rates(ASYR) of OMSDs in China showed upward trends. Two critical turning points in ASPR occurred during 2000-2005 (APC = 1.5%, 95% CI: 1.4-1.6) and 2005-2009 (APC = 0.9%, 95% CI: 0.7-1.0). Age effects indicated that relative risk (RR) first increased and then decreased with age, peaking at 60-64 years (RR = 3.62, 95% CI: 3.62-3.63). Period effects showed a rising trend, while cohort effects revealed declining prevalence and YLDs rates. Projections suggest a gradual increase in burden indicators through 2041. Compared to other G20 countries, China ranked eighth from the bottom in disease burden, approaching the level of Germany. CONCLUSION: The burden of OMSDs in China continues to rise, particularly among women and the elderly. Although the current burden is at a mid-range level among G20 nations, population aging will exacerbate future challenges. To address this, advocating for healthy lifestyles, strengthening health education, and optimizing healthcare strategies are essential.
背景:其他肌肉骨骼疾病(OMSDs)作为全球公共卫生挑战的重要组成部分,在中国仍未得到充分研究。本研究旨在系统分析1990年至2021年中国OMSDs的流行病学特征和未来趋势。 方法:基于全球疾病负担研究(GBD)2021的数据,本研究聚焦于患病率和伤残调整生命年(YLDs),并与二十国集团(G20)国家进行比较。采用Joinpoint回归确定趋势断点,年龄-时期-队列分析评估年龄、时期和队列的独立影响,自回归积分移动平均(ARIMA)模型预测到2041年的疾病负担。 结果:1990年至2021年期间,中国OMSDs的年龄标准化患病率(ASPR)和YLDs率(ASYR)均呈上升趋势。ASPR出现两个关键转折点,分别在2000 - 2005年(年度百分比变化[APC]=1.5%,95%置信区间[CI]:1.4 - 1.6)和2005 - 2009年(APC = 0.9%,95% CI:0.7 - 1.0)。年龄效应表明,相对风险(RR)随年龄先升高后降低,在60 - 64岁达到峰值(RR = 3.62,95% CI:3.62 - 3.63)。时期效应呈上升趋势,而队列效应显示患病率和YLDs率呈下降趋势。预测表明,到2041年负担指标将逐渐增加。与其他G20国家相比,中国的疾病负担排名倒数第八,接近德国的水平。 结论:中国OMSDs的负担持续上升,尤其是在女性和老年人中。尽管目前的负担在G20国家中处于中等水平,但人口老龄化将加剧未来的挑战。为此,倡导健康的生活方式、加强健康教育和优化医疗保健策略至关重要。
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