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1992 年至 2021 年中国骨盆骨折的流行病学趋势的年龄-时期-队列分析及 2046 年的预测。

Age-period-cohort analysis of epidemiological trends in pelvic fracture in China from 1992 to 2021 and forecasts for 2046.

机构信息

School of Microelectronics and Communication Engineering of Chongqing University, Chongqing University Central Hospital (Chongqing Emergency Medical Center), Chongqing, China.

Department of Traumatology, National Regional Trauma Medical Center, Chongqing University Central Hospital (Chongqing Emergency Medical Center), Chongqing, China.

出版信息

Front Public Health. 2024 Jul 8;12:1428068. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1428068. eCollection 2024.


DOI:10.3389/fpubh.2024.1428068
PMID:39040861
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11260792/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: This study explored the epidemiological trends in pelvic fracture (PF) in China from 1992 to 2021, analyze their relationships with age-period-cohort (APC) factors, and predict the trends of PF from 2022 to 2046. METHODS: Incidence and years lived with disabilities (YLDs) of PF among sexes in China from 1992 to 2021 were obtained through the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. Trends in the incidence and YLDs were described, and a joinpoint regression model was used. The APC model was used to explore the effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence and YLDs. Nordpred forecasted the incidence and YLDs in China from 2022 to 2046. RESULTS: In 2021, there were an estimated 0.63 million incidence cases and 0.33 million of YLDs, respectively. The number and age-standardized rate (ASR) of incidence and YLDs were both gradually increased. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in incidence and YLDs for men were 0.26% and -0.17%, respectively. For women, the AAPC values for incidence and YLDs were -0.03% and -0.57% ( < 0. 001), respectively. The relative risk (RR) of PF increases with age, with the lowest risk in those aged 10-14 years for incidence and aged 1-4 for YLDs and the highest risk in those aged >95 years for incidence and aged 90-94 years for YLDs. The period effect showed a totally increase in the risk across the general, male, and female populations. Cohort effects indicated a totally significant decline for both incidence and YLDs. The predicted incidence and YLDs of PF in China from 2022 to 2046 showed an initial rise, followed by a decline, with 2029 and 2034 being the turning point for incidence and YLDs, respectively. CONCLUSION: The characteristics of pelvic fracture incidence and YLDs in China are complex. Thus, primary prevention measures must be strengthened. Raising awareness about osteoporosis prevention, enhancing public health education, and promoting good dietary and hygiene habits are appropriate preventive measures for PF in China.

摘要

背景:本研究旨在探讨 1992 年至 2021 年期间中国骨盆骨折(PF)的流行病学趋势,分析其与年龄-时期-队列(APC)因素的关系,并预测 2022 年至 2046 年 PF 的趋势。 方法:通过 2021 年全球疾病负担(GBD)数据库获取 1992 年至 2021 年中国男女 PF 的发病率和伤残生命年(YLDs)。描述发病率和 YLDs 的趋势,并使用 joinpoint 回归模型。使用 APC 模型探讨年龄、时期和队列对发病率和 YLDs 的影响。Nordpred 预测 2022 年至 2046 年中国的发病率和 YLDs。 结果:2021 年,估计发病率为 63 万例,YLDs 为 33 万例。发病率和年龄标准化率(ASR)均呈逐渐增加趋势。男性发病率和 YLDs 的年均百分比变化(AAPC)分别为 0.26%和-0.17%。对于女性,发病率和 YLDs 的 AAPC 值分别为-0.03%和-0.57%(<0.001)。PF 的相对风险(RR)随年龄增长而增加,发病率最低的是 10-14 岁,YLDs 最低的是 1-4 岁,发病率最高的是>95 岁,YLDs 最高的是 90-94 岁。时期效应表明,所有人群的风险均呈总体增加趋势。队列效应表明,发病率和 YLDs 均呈显著下降趋势。中国 2022 年至 2046 年 PF 的预测发病率和 YLDs 呈先升后降趋势,2029 年和 2034 年分别为发病率和 YLDs 的转折点。 结论:中国骨盆骨折发病率和 YLDs 的特征较为复杂。因此,必须加强初级预防措施。提高对骨质疏松症预防的认识,加强公共卫生教育,促进良好的饮食和卫生习惯,是预防中国 PF 的适当措施。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/242f/11260792/2a02fcb4f5d4/fpubh-12-1428068-g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/242f/11260792/f9c1fbb5736c/fpubh-12-1428068-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/242f/11260792/2b38837f0cb7/fpubh-12-1428068-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/242f/11260792/3ee11a9dc654/fpubh-12-1428068-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/242f/11260792/8edc373fb1ca/fpubh-12-1428068-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/242f/11260792/a7fc5487f3dc/fpubh-12-1428068-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/242f/11260792/8ffcd6d9d93d/fpubh-12-1428068-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/242f/11260792/2a02fcb4f5d4/fpubh-12-1428068-g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/242f/11260792/f9c1fbb5736c/fpubh-12-1428068-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/242f/11260792/2b38837f0cb7/fpubh-12-1428068-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/242f/11260792/3ee11a9dc654/fpubh-12-1428068-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/242f/11260792/8edc373fb1ca/fpubh-12-1428068-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/242f/11260792/a7fc5487f3dc/fpubh-12-1428068-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/242f/11260792/8ffcd6d9d93d/fpubh-12-1428068-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/242f/11260792/2a02fcb4f5d4/fpubh-12-1428068-g007.jpg

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引用本文的文献

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Arch Osteoporos. 2025-8-6

[2]
Global, regional, and national burden of fracture of pelvis, 1990-2021: analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Front Public Health. 2025-6-18

[3]
Global, regional and national level burden of bulimia nervosa from 1990 to 2021 and their projections to 2030: analysis of the global burden of disease study.

J Eat Disord. 2025-6-12

[4]
Global burden of occupational ergonomic factor-induced low back pain, 1990~2021: data analysis and projections of the global burden of disease.

Front Public Health. 2025-5-27

[5]
Ten-Year Trends in Pelvic Fractures Among China's Aging Population: A Retrospective Single-Center Study.

Med Sci Monit. 2025-6-7

[6]
Trends and future burden of other musculoskeletal diseases in China (1990-2041): a comparative analysis with G20 countries using GBD data.

BMC Public Health. 2025-6-6

[7]
Secular trend in disease burden of atrial fibrillation/flutter in China from 1992 to 2021 and its projection in 25 years.

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[8]
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[9]
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[10]
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本文引用的文献

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