110 years of rice breeding at LSU: realized genetic gains and future optimization.

Strategic resource allocation in breeding programs is key to balancing cost-effectiveness and genetic improvement. This research aimed to understand the critical role of adopting advanced breeding tools and optimizing breeding strategies to ensure the sustainability and success of public breeding programs in meeting future food security challenges. In this context, there are two main objectives: estimate the genetic gains achieved over 110 years in the rice breeding program of Louisiana State University (LSU); evaluate through stochastic simulations the impacts of modern selection tools such as genomic selection (GS) and high-throughput phenotyping (HTP) on future genetic gains. Considering the 110 years, the average increase was 4.55 kg/ha per generation (23 breeding cycles). However, from 1994 to 2018, we observed more substantial trends in genetic gains, particularly for grain yield, which increased by approximately 56.54 kg/ha per year. Based on simulations, integrating GS and HTP demonstrated significant advantages, including shorter breeding cycles, enhanced selection accuracy, and reduced costs. Also, simulation results showed that this approach yielded the highest response to selection (4.68% per year) due to the synergistic effects of combining advanced phenotyping techniques with GS. Finally, we assessed the effects of balancing the number of parents, crosses, and progeny sizes to maximize genetic gains and maintain genetic variability. Variance component analysis indicated that progeny size had the greatest impact on total variance (36%), followed by the number of crosses (23%) and the number of parents (3.4%). The findings highlight the need for strategic resource allocation in breeding programs to balance cost-effectiveness and genetic improvement.