Arpino Bruno, Di Nallo Alessandro
Department of Statistical Sciences and Department of Philosophy, Sociology, Education, and Applied Psychology, University of Padua, Padua, Italy.
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
Demography. 2025 Jun 1;62(3):1059-1085. doi: 10.1215/00703370-11983537.
We examine whether union dissolution is associated with partners' (mis)match on political preferences, defined as self-reported closeness, intention to vote, or reported vote for a specific party. Previous studies have shown that partners' heterogamy by ethnicity, education, and other dimensions increases the risk of union dissolution because of differences between partners in lifestyles, attitudes, and beliefs or because of disapproval from family and community members. We posit that similar arguments can apply to political heterogamy and test this hypothesis using UK data from the British Household Panel Study and the UK Household Longitudinal Study. The data offer a unique opportunity to assess the role of heterogamy by political preferences while controlling for heterogamy in other domains and for other partners' characteristics over a long period (1991-2019). The data also facilitate a more specific analysis of the referendum on the United Kingdom's permanence in the European Union (known as the Brexit referendum). We find a positive association between political heterogamy and union dissolution, which is as strong as some other forms of heterogamy. The role of diverging opinions on the Brexit referendum in union dissolutions appears to be even more important than the role of partners' differing party preferences.
我们研究了婚姻关系的解除是否与伴侣在政治偏好上的（不）匹配有关，政治偏好被定义为自我报告的亲密程度、投票意向或对特定政党的投票情况。先前的研究表明，伴侣在种族、教育程度和其他方面的异质性会增加婚姻关系解除的风险，原因在于伴侣在生活方式、态度和信仰上存在差异，或者是因为来自家庭成员和社区成员的不认可。我们认为类似的观点也适用于政治异质性，并使用来自英国家庭调查面板研究和英国家庭纵向研究的英国数据来检验这一假设。这些数据提供了一个独特的机会，在控制其他领域的异质性以及长期（1991 - 2019年）内其他伴侣特征的同时，评估政治偏好异质性的作用。这些数据还便于对英国在欧盟的存续问题公投（即脱欧公投）进行更具体的分析。我们发现政治异质性与婚姻关系解除之间存在正相关，这种相关性与其他一些形式的异质性一样强烈。在婚姻关系解除中，对脱欧公投的不同意见所起的作用似乎比伴侣不同政党偏好所起的作用更为重要。
