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1700年至2021年全球黑碳排放及人口暴露趋势

Trends in Global Black Carbon Emissions and Population Exposure from 1700 to 2021.

作者信息

Shan Min, Dai Rong, Zhu Yaqi, Zheng Shuxiu, Wang Jinghang, Zhang Heng, Chen Yujiaqian, Chen Rongcan, Ma Jianmin, Shen Guofeng, Cheng Hefa, Zhong Qirui, Shen Huizhong, Wang Chen, Tao Shu

机构信息

Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.

Coastal Atmosphere and Climate of the Greater Bay Area Observation and Research Station of Guangdong Province, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China.

出版信息

Environ Sci Technol. 2025 Jun 24;59(24):12211-12220. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.5c03352. Epub 2025 Jun 11.

Abstract

Black carbon (BC) emission inventories are essential tools for tackling the dual challenges of climate change and air pollution. However, uncertainties in source attribution, emission factors, and temporal-spatial variability often lead to biased BC emission inventories. By integrating recently published energy consumption data from residential and industrial sectors with field-measured emission factors, we developed a novel BC inventory with a high spatial resolution of 0.1°×0.1° on a monthly basis. This inventory highlights the evolution of BC from 1700 to 2021, spanning the preindustrial era to the present, providing a valuable tool for assessing human interventions in air pollution and climate. Indoor exposure is included for the first time. While ambient BC concentrations mirrored the emissions trend, indoor BC concentrations shifted in the opposite direction, driven by the transition from solid fuels to clean energy in the residential sector. Consequently, population exposure, predominantly influenced by indoor exposure, decreased from 29.7 (28.0-31.6) μg/m in 1700 to 8.8 (8.2-9.4) μg/m in 2021 on a global average. Females were exposed to higher BC levels than males due to spending more time in kitchens.

摘要

黑碳(BC)排放清单是应对气候变化和空气污染双重挑战的重要工具。然而,源归因、排放因子以及时空变异性方面的不确定性常常导致黑碳排放清单出现偏差。通过将近期发布的住宅和工业部门能耗数据与实地测量的排放因子相结合,我们编制了一份新颖的黑碳清单,其月度空间分辨率高达0.1°×0.1°。该清单突出了1700年至2021年黑碳的演变情况,涵盖了从工业化前时代到现在的时间段,为评估人类对空气污染和气候的干预提供了宝贵工具。首次纳入了室内暴露情况。虽然环境黑碳浓度反映了排放趋势,但由于住宅部门从固体燃料向清洁能源的转变,室内黑碳浓度呈相反方向变化。因此,主要受室内暴露影响的人口暴露量在全球平均水平上从1700年的29.7(28.0 - 31.6)μg/m降至2021年的8.8(8.2 - 9.4)μg/m。由于女性在厨房花费的时间更多,她们接触的黑碳水平高于男性。

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