确定职业足球运动员“正常”的职业生涯时长，以便与受伤和接受手术的球员进行比较。
Establishing 'normal' career longevity in professional footballers allows comparison to that of players with injuries and surgery.
作者信息
Jones Mary, Motesharei Arman, Ball Simon V, Church J Samuel, Calder James D F, Williams Andy
机构信息
Fortius Clinic, London, UK.
FIFA Medical Centre of Excellence, London, UK.
出版信息
Knee Surg Sports Traumatol Arthrosc. 2025 Sep;33(9):3375-3388. doi: 10.1002/ksa.12722. Epub 2025 Jun 12.
PURPOSE
To determine the 'normal' career longevity of male professional footballers and the factors that affect this in order to provide a baseline against which career longevity after injury can be measured. To demonstrate how these results can be used by comparing them with published career longevity rates after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR).
METHODS
Match play data for the entire careers of 4117 male footballers playing in the top four English football leagues between 1992 and 2023 was utilised. Players were grouped into ability levels and their "still playing" rates, and career trajectory tracked according to age. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to determine differences by playing position and ability and Kaplan-Meier survival curves were generated. The findings were compared with published results after ACLR according to the comparable age and league level.
RESULTS
Goalkeepers had a longer overall career length than outfield players (12.4 ± 4.9 vs. 11.6 ± 4.7 years, p = <0.01).Outfield players in the English Premier League (EPL) and those also playing internationally (EPL + I) play for longer overall and longer at their highest level (14.8 ± 3.3 and 7.5 ± 5.0 years) than lower league players (League 2: 6.2 ± 4.1 and 2.9 + 2.2 years). At 5 years, EPL + I and EPL outfield players have a 60% and 40% probability of continuing to play at their highest level respectively compared to less than 20% in The Championship and below. At 10 years this is 40% and 18% respectively compared to <2% in the lower leagues. 'Still playing' rates after ACLR are up to 12.9% lower than average for 30 year old footballers.
CONCLUSION
Career duration in footballers is affected by the position played and ability level. Career longevity and performance data is provided in a usable format for easy comparisons with studies reporting career longevity outcomes in professional footballers.
LEVEL OF EVIDENCE
Level III, retrospective cohort study.
目的
确定男性职业足球运动员的“正常”职业生涯长度以及影响该长度的因素，以便提供一个基线，用于衡量受伤后的职业生涯长度。通过将这些结果与已发表的前交叉韧带重建（ACLR）后的职业生涯长度率进行比较，展示如何运用这些结果。
方法
利用了1992年至2023年间在英格兰前四个足球联赛中踢球的4117名男性足球运动员整个职业生涯的比赛数据。球员按能力水平分组，记录他们的“仍在踢球”率，并根据年龄跟踪职业生涯轨迹。采用单因素和多因素分析来确定不同位置和能力的差异，并生成Kaplan-Meier生存曲线。根据可比年龄和联赛水平，将研究结果与已发表的ACLR后的结果进行比较。
结果
守门员的总体职业生涯长度比非守门员球员更长（12.4±4.9年对11.6±4.7年，p＜0.01）。英超联赛（EPL）中的非守门员球员以及同时参加国际比赛的球员（EPL+I）的总体踢球时间更长，在最高水平的踢球时间也更长（14.8±3.3年和7.5±5.0年），相比低级别联赛球员（英乙联赛：6.2±4.1年和2.9+2.2年）。在5年时，EPL+I和EPL的非守门员球员分别有60%和40%的概率继续在最高水平踢球，而英冠及以下级别联赛的这一概率不到20%。在10年时，这一概率分别为40%和18%，相比低级别联赛的不到2%。ACLR后的“仍在踢球”率比30岁足球运动员的平均水平低达12.9%。
结论
足球运动员的职业生涯时长受比赛位置和能力水平影响。以可用格式提供了职业生涯长度和表现数据，便于与报道职业足球运动员职业生涯长度结果的研究进行轻松比较。
证据水平
三级，回顾性队列研究。
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