Rocha João, Soares Patrícia, Filipe Catarina, Lopes Sílvia, Teixeira Mário, Fonseca Inês, Sousa Joana, Marquês Diana, Mestre Ricardo, Duarte António, Santana Rui
National School of Public Health, Public Health Research Center, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal.
Comprehensive Health Research Center, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal.
Port J Public Health. 2021 Mar 3:1-7. doi: 10.1159/000514163.
The objective of this study was to analyze the impact of the pandemic on inpatient hospital admissions during the first wave in Portugal. Data from hospital admissions in mainland Portugal from 2008 to 2017 were used to forecast inpatient hospital admissions for March to May 2020. The observed number of hospitalizations and their characteristics were compared to forecasted values. Variations were compared by hospital and region. Statistical analysis was used to investigate whether patterns of variations existed according to hospital characteristics. There were 119,315 fewer hospitalizations than expected during March to May 2020 in Portugal, which represented a 57% reduction. Non-COVID-19 hospitalizations had a higher mean length of stay and proportion of inpatient deaths than forecasted values. Differences between observed and forecasted values varied greatly among regions and hospitals. These variations were not associated with COVID-19 hospital admissions, region, forecasted number of hospitalizations, type of hospital, or occupation rate. The impact on inpatient hospital admissions for each hospital was not consistent or proportional to the expected use across Portugal, as indicated by variations between forecasted and observed values. The appropriate planning of future responses may contribute to improving the necessary balance between the level of hospital admissions for usual health needs of the population and the response to COVID-19 patients.
本研究的目的是分析疫情对葡萄牙第一波疫情期间住院患者入院情况的影响。利用2008年至2017年葡萄牙大陆住院患者的数据来预测2020年3月至5月的住院患者入院情况。将观察到的住院人数及其特征与预测值进行比较。按医院和地区对差异进行比较。采用统计分析来调查是否存在根据医院特征的差异模式。2020年3月至5月期间，葡萄牙的住院人数比预期少119,315人，降幅达57%。非新冠病毒感染住院患者的平均住院时间和住院死亡比例高于预测值。观察值与预测值之间的差异在不同地区和医院之间差异很大。这些差异与新冠病毒感染住院患者、地区、预测住院人数、医院类型或占用率无关。如预测值与观察值之间的差异所示，每家医院对住院患者入院情况的影响与葡萄牙各地的预期使用情况不一致或不成比例。未来应对措施的适当规划可能有助于在满足民众日常健康需求的住院水平与应对新冠病毒感染患者之间实现必要的平衡。
