Su Mintao, Chen Junjun, Liang Zhisheng, Zhou Qinfeng, Ma Junxiong, Yang Huining, Biswal Shaym, Ramanathan Murugappan, Fan Haojun, Dai Fan, Huang Wei, Ren Minghui, Zhang Zhenyu
Department of Global Health, Peking University School of Public Health, 38 Xue Yuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100191, China.
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, USA.
Infect Dis Poverty. 2025 Jun 16;14(1):50. doi: 10.1186/s40249-025-01326-4.
Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne disease, is influenced by temperature. As global warming intensifies, the frequency of hot nights has increased. However, the relationship between hot nights and dengue transmission remains unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of hot night exposures on dengue incidence.
We collected individual dengue data from Brazil's SINAN database (2014-2021), covering 5,708,691 patients. Hot night exposures, including the average maximum nighttime temperatures, hot night excess, and hot night duration, were calculated using the ERA5-land dataset. A case-crossover design was employed to assess the association between each hot night exposure and dengue incidence using conditional logistic regression.
The average maximum nighttime temperature, hot night excess, and hot night duration were all significantly associated with increased risk of dengue, with odds ratios (ORs) of 1.86 (95% CI 1.86-1.87), 1.01 (95% CI 1.01-1.01), and 1.05 (95% CI 1.05-1.05), respectively. The attributable risks for each hot night exposure were 14.02% (95% CI 13.49%-14.60%), 27.80% (95% CI 27.33%-28.21%), and 26.95% (95% CI 26.58%-27.38%), respectively, when the exposure value was above the 90th percentile of its distribution.
Hot night exposures were associated with an increased risk of dengue in Brazil. The public health burden of dengue is likely to rise with increasing hot night exposures, especially as hot nights become more frequent worldwide. Implementation of targeted vector control strategies and improved access to cooling equipment, such as air-conditioning, may serve as important mitigation measures.
登革热是一种由蚊子传播的疾病，受温度影响。随着全球变暖加剧，炎热夜晚的频率增加。然而，炎热夜晚与登革热传播之间的关系仍不明确。本研究旨在评估暴露于炎热夜晚对登革热发病率的影响。
我们从巴西的SINAN数据库（2014 - 2021年）收集了个体登革热数据，涵盖5,708,691名患者。使用ERA5 - land数据集计算炎热夜晚暴露情况，包括平均夜间最高温度、炎热夜晚超额值和炎热夜晚持续时间。采用病例交叉设计，通过条件逻辑回归评估每种炎热夜晚暴露与登革热发病率之间的关联。
平均夜间最高温度、炎热夜晚超额值和炎热夜晚持续时间均与登革热风险增加显著相关，优势比（OR）分别为1.86（95%置信区间1.86 - 1.87）、1.01（95%置信区间1.01 - 1.01）和1.05（95%置信区间1.05 - 1.05）。当暴露值高于其分布的第90百分位数时，每种炎热夜晚暴露的归因风险分别为14.02%（95%置信区间13.49% - 14.60%）、27.80%（95%置信区间27.33% - 28.21%）和26.95%（95%置信区间26.58% - 27.38%）。
在巴西，暴露于炎热夜晚与登革热风险增加相关。随着炎热夜晚暴露增加，尤其是在全球范围内炎热夜晚变得更加频繁的情况下，登革热的公共卫生负担可能会上升。实施有针对性的病媒控制策略以及改善获取诸如空调等制冷设备的机会，可能是重要的缓解措施。
