Barcellos Christovam, Matos Vanderlei, Lana Raquel Martins, Lowe Rachel
Climate and Health Observatory, Institute of Health Information and Communication, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (ICICT/Fiocruz), Avenida Brasil 4365, Manguinhos, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, 21040-900, Brazil.
Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain.
Sci Rep. 2024 Mar 11;14(1):5948. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-56044-y.
Dengue is rapidly expanding its transmission area across Brazil and much of South America. In this study, data-mining techniques were used to identify climatic and demographic indicators that could explain the recent (2014-2020) and simultaneous trends of expansion and exacerbation of the incidence in some regions of Brazil. The previous circulation of the virus (dengue incidence rates between 2007 and 2013), urbanization, and the occurrence of temperature anomalies for a prolonged period were the main factors that led to increased incidence of dengue in the central region of Brazil. Regions with high altitudes, which previously acted as a barrier for dengue transmission, became areas of high incidence rates. The algorithm that was developed during this study can be utilized to assess future climate scenarios and plan preventive actions.
登革热正在迅速扩大其在巴西和南美洲大部分地区的传播范围。在本研究中，数据挖掘技术被用于识别气候和人口统计学指标，这些指标可以解释巴西一些地区近期（2014 - 2020年）登革热发病率上升和加剧的同时出现的趋势。病毒先前的传播情况（2007年至2013年期间的登革热发病率）、城市化以及长期的温度异常情况是导致巴西中部地区登革热发病率上升的主要因素。以前作为登革热传播屏障的高海拔地区，变成了高发病率地区。本研究期间开发的算法可用于评估未来气候情景并规划预防行动。
