Rising Incidence of Total and Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer: A Global Perspective on Burden, Risk Factors, and Projections to 2031.

BACKGROUND

The occurrence of colorectal cancer in those under 50 has significantly increased in recent decades. This study assesses the burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) and early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC), along with associated risk factors, using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021, and projects incidence and mortality rates for 2031.

METHODS

Data on prevalence, incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and risk factors were retrieved from the GBD 2021. The average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) were calculated using joinpoint regression analysis, and projections to 2031 were made with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models.

RESULTS

The number of new CRC cases globally was 2,194,143, of which EO-CRC accounted for 211,890 cases. Both CRC (AAPC 0.20) and EO-CRC (AAPC 0.99) demonstrated global increases from 1990 to 2021, with EO-CRC showing a sharper rise. The most significant increases in EO-CRC incidence, mortality, and DALYs occurred in America. Projected EO-CRC incidence and mortality rates for 2031 are 6.70 and 2.57 per 100,000 individuals, respectively. Major risk factors for CRC and EO-CRC DALYs included diets low in milk and calcium, high red meat intake, and elevated BMI.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the growing EO-CRC burden, particularly in America, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions to address dietary and lifestyle risk factors. Projections indicate a continued rise in EO-CRC incidence and mortality by 2031, underscoring the urgency for public health action to mitigate this trend. The occurrence of colorectal cancer in those under 50 has significantly increased globally from 1990 to 2021, with notable regional variations. Our study assesses the current burden of CRC and EO-CRC using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021, identifies associated risk factors, and projects incidence and mortality trends through 2031 using ARIMA models. These findings offer a precise measurement of the EO-CRC burden and underscore the necessity of identifying and addressing at-risk people to effectively mitigate this escalating health concern.