Garcia Carla Gisele Ribeiro, Ribeiro Beatriz C, Souza Júnior Alcinês S, Lima Lilian Jéssica P, Póvoa Marinete M, Laporta Gabriel Z, Cunha Maristela G
Universidade Federal do Pará, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Laboratório de Microbiologia e Imunologia, Belém, PA, Brasil.
Secretaria de Estado da Saúde do Pará, Belém, PA, Brasil.
Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz. 2025 Jun 13;120:e240143. doi: 10.1590/0074-02760240143. eCollection 2025.
Malaria transmission is prevalent in tropical regions and is heavily influenced by environmental factors such as deforestation, which is particularly significant in the Brazilian Amazon, especially in Pará State.
This study aimed to assess the relationship between deforestation indicators and malaria incidence across all 144 municipalities in Pará.
Using municipal-level data from 2008 to 2019, the study applied geographically weighted regression (GWR) to analyse spatial relationships between malaria incidence and deforestation metrics. These metrics included forest cover loss from the previous year, pastureland, forest cover, fragmentation, urbanisation, and water levels, analysed over three distinct 4-year periods. The study also incorporated poverty levels to examine their influence on municipalities with high malaria risk.
During the study period, the total deforested area in Pará was 30,000 km2, with 679,846 malaria cases reported. Malaria incidence rates varied across municipalities, with stable rates in high-risk areas, and were linked to pastureland, forest loss, fragmentation, and forest cover. The GWR models effectively captured spatial heterogeneity in these interactions.
Malaria incidence was associated with areas of Pará State experiencing significant forest loss and fragmentation, indicating that changes in forest composition and configuration influence malaria risk.
疟疾传播在热带地区普遍存在，并且受到森林砍伐等环境因素的严重影响，这在巴西亚马逊地区尤为显著，特别是在帕拉州。
本研究旨在评估帕拉州所有144个市的森林砍伐指标与疟疾发病率之间的关系。
该研究利用2008年至2019年的市级数据，应用地理加权回归（GWR）分析疟疾发病率与森林砍伐指标之间的空间关系。这些指标包括上一年的森林覆盖损失、牧场、森林覆盖、破碎化、城市化和水位，在三个不同的4年期间进行分析。该研究还纳入了贫困水平，以考察其对疟疾高风险市的影响。
在研究期间，帕拉州的森林砍伐总面积为30000平方公里，报告疟疾病例679846例。各市的疟疾发病率各不相同，高风险地区发病率稳定，且与牧场、森林损失、破碎化和森林覆盖有关。地理加权回归模型有效地捕捉了这些相互作用中的空间异质性。
疟疾发病率与帕拉州森林大量损失和破碎化的地区有关，这表明森林组成和结构的变化会影响疟疾风险。
