Graduate Research and Innovation Program, Centro Universitario FMABC, Santo André, SP, Brazil.
Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, Institute of Zoology and Tropical Ecology, School of Sciences, Central University of Venezuela, Caracas, Venezuela.
Infect Dis Poverty. 2022 Apr 5;11(1):39. doi: 10.1186/s40249-022-00945-5.
Since 2015, the Global Technical Strategy (GTS) for Malaria 2016-2030 has been adopted by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a comprehensive framework to accelerate progress for malaria elimination in endemic countries. This strategy sets the target of reducing global malaria incidence and mortality rates by 90% in 2030. Here it is sought to evaluate Brazil's achievements towards reaching the WHO GTS milestone in 2030. Considering the total number of new malaria cases in 2015, the main research question is: will Brazil reach the malaria elimination goal in 2030?
Analytical strategies were undertaken using the SIVEP-malaria official databases of the Brazilian Malaria Control Programme for the Brazilian Amazon region from 2009 to 2020. Spatial and time-series analyses were applied for identifying municipalities that support the highest numbers of malaria cases over the years. Forecast analysis was used for predicting the estimated number of new cases in Brazil in 2025-2050.
Brazil has significantly reduced the number of new malaria cases in 2020 in comparison with 2015 in the states of Acre (- 56%), Amapá (- 75%), and Amazonas (- 21%); however, they increased in the states of Pará (156%), Rondônia (74%), and Roraima (362%). Forecast of the predicted number of new malaria cases in 2030 is 74,764 (95% CI: 41,116-141,160) in the Brazilian Amazon.
It is likely that Brazil will reduce the number of new malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon in 2030 in relation to that in 2015. Herein forecast shows a reduction by 46% (74,754 in 2030 forecast/137,982 in 2015), but this reduction is yet far from the proposed reduction under the WHO GTS 2030 milestone (90%). Stable and unbeatable transmission in the Juruá River Valley, Manaus, and Lábrea still support endemic malaria in the Brazilian Amazon. Today's cross-border malaria is impacting the state of Roraima unprecedently. If this situation is maintained, the malaria elimination goal (zero cases) may not be reached before 2050. An enhanced political commitment is vital to ensure optimal public health intervention designs in the post-2030 milestones for malaria elimination.
自 2015 年以来，世界卫生组织（WHO）已采用 2016-2030 年全球疟疾技术战略（GTS）作为加速消除流行国家疟疾的综合框架。该战略设定了到 2030 年将全球疟疾发病率和死亡率降低 90%的目标。在这里，我们试图评估巴西在实现 2030 年世卫组织 GTS 里程碑方面的成就。考虑到 2015 年新疟疾病例的总数，主要研究问题是：巴西将在 2030 年实现消除疟疾的目标吗？
使用巴西疟疾控制计划的 SIVEP-malaria 官方数据库对 2009 年至 2020 年巴西亚马逊地区进行了分析策略。应用空间和时间序列分析来确定多年来支持疟疾病例数量最高的城市。预测分析用于预测 2025-2050 年巴西的新疟疾病例估计数。
与 2015 年相比，巴西在 2020 年减少了 2015 年在阿克里州（-56%）、阿马帕州（-75%）和亚马逊州（-21%）的新疟疾病例数量，但在帕拉州（156%）、朗多尼亚州（74%）和罗赖马州（362%）的病例数量增加了。预计 2030 年巴西亚马逊地区新疟疾病例的预测数为 74764 例（95%CI：41116-141160）。
巴西可能会减少 2030 年巴西亚马逊地区的新疟疾病例数量，与 2015 年相比。这里的预测显示减少了 46%（2030 年预测的 74754 例/2015 年的 137982 例），但这一减少距离世卫组织 2030 年 GTS 里程碑所提议的减少（90%）还有很长的路要走。乌鲁阿河河谷、马瑙斯和拉布雷亚的稳定和不可战胜的传播仍然支持着巴西亚马逊地区的地方性疟疾。如今的跨境疟疾正在以前所未有的方式影响罗赖马州。如果这种情况持续下去，到 2050 年之前可能无法实现消除疟疾的目标（零病例）。增强政治承诺对于确保消除疟疾后 2030 年里程碑的最佳公共卫生干预设计至关重要。
