Ben Salem Leila, Nouira Ridha, Saafi Sami
FSEG and LAMIDED Sousse University, Tunisia.
ISFF and LAMIDED Sousse University, Tunisia.
J Environ Manage. 2025 Aug;389:126238. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.126238. Epub 2025 Jun 19.
The global shift toward renewable energy is reshaping economic relationships. However, its impact on bilateral trade remains underexplored, particularly in major economies such as the US and China. As the world's largest trading partners and carbon emitters, changes in energy strategies and climate policies have significant consequences for global trade dynamics. This study explores the time-varying effects of renewable energy consumption on bilateral trade between the US and China, emphasizing the role of climate policy stringency. While much of the existing literature assumes a stable relationship between trade and renewable energy, recent regulatory developments-such as the rollback of environmental protections in the United States under the Trump administration and China's ambitious renewable energy commitments outlined in its 14th Five-Year Plan-highlight the necessity for a more realistic, dynamic analytical framework. Drawing on industry-level monthly data from January 1996 to September 2023, we apply a time-varying threshold regression kink model to capture nonlinearities and structural shifts in the trade-renewable energy nexus. Our findings reveal that increased renewable energy consumption positively influences US imports from China while exerting downward pressure on US exports to China. Importantly, these effects are contingent upon the prevailing level of climate policy stringency, highlighting its role as a key moderating variable. Furthermore, we uncover substantial heterogeneity in renewable energy thresholds across industries, indicating sector-specific sensitivities. These findings emphasize the strategic role of environmental policy in shaping bilateral trade patterns and underscore the need to align trade strategies with sustainability goals.
全球向可再生能源的转变正在重塑经济关系。然而，其对双边贸易的影响仍未得到充分探索，尤其是在美国和中国等主要经济体中。作为世界上最大的贸易伙伴和碳排放国，能源战略和气候政策的变化对全球贸易动态有着重大影响。本研究探讨了可再生能源消费对美中双边贸易的时变影响，强调了气候政策严格性的作用。虽然现有文献大多假设贸易与可再生能源之间存在稳定关系，但近期的监管发展——比如特朗普政府时期美国环境保护措施的倒退以及中国在其“十四五”规划中提出的雄心勃勃的可再生能源承诺——凸显了建立一个更现实、动态的分析框架的必要性。利用1996年1月至2023年9月的行业月度数据，我们应用时变阈值回归扭结模型来捕捉贸易与可再生能源关系中的非线性和结构转变。我们的研究结果表明，可再生能源消费的增加对美国从中国的进口有积极影响，同时对美国向中国的出口施加下行压力。重要的是，这些影响取决于气候政策严格性的当前水平，突出了其作为关键调节变量的作用。此外，我们发现各行业的可再生能源阈值存在显著异质性，表明存在特定行业的敏感性。这些发现强调了环境政策在塑造双边贸易模式中的战略作用，并强调了使贸易战略与可持续发展目标保持一致的必要性。
