Weng Shimei, Benkraiem Ramzi, Nghiem Xuan-Hoa, Zhao Xin, Xu Junwei
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, China.
Audencia Business School, Nantes, France.
J Environ Manage. 2025 Aug;389:126162. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.126162. Epub 2025 Jun 14.
In the context of the current shift from "dual control" of energy consumption to "dual control" of carbon emissions, formulating reasonable energy policies is crucial for breaking free from a high-carbon development path and promoting a transition to low-carbon economy. However, despite the energy trading system being an important institutional arrangement in China's energy market reform, research remains scarce regarding its effectiveness in reducing dependence on high-carbon energy and industries formed in the economic development, or in mitigating urban carbon lock-in. By applying the difference-in-differences method to the panel data of 283 cities in China, this paper empirically examines the impact characteristics and mechanisms of energy rights trading on urban carbon lock-in. Empirical results confirm that this energy trading system inhibits urban carbon unlock-in and leads low-carbon economy development. Notably, the optimization of energy production, allocation, and utilization is the main pathway for reducing carbon lock-in through the energy rights policy, with fossil energy prices playing an effective regulatory role. Additionally, the effect of pilot policy is relatively stronger in resource-based cities, cities with low energy market segmentation, and those with weak climate policy uncertainty. Moreover, while policy implementation can curb carbon lock-in in the region, it may have the opposite effect on neighboring regions.
在当前从能源消费“双控”向碳排放“双控”转变的背景下，制定合理的能源政策对于摆脱高碳发展路径、推动向低碳经济转型至关重要。然而，尽管能源交易体系是中国能源市场改革中的一项重要制度安排，但关于其在降低对高碳能源的依赖以及经济发展中形成的产业依赖方面的有效性，或者在缓解城市碳锁定方面的研究仍然稀缺。本文运用双重差分法对中国283个城市的面板数据进行分析，实证检验了能源权交易对城市碳锁定的影响特征及作用机制。实证结果证实，这一能源交易体系抑制了城市碳锁定并引领低碳经济发展。值得注意的是，能源生产、配置和利用的优化是通过能源权政策减少碳锁定的主要途径，化石能源价格发挥着有效的调节作用。此外，试点政策在资源型城市、能源市场分割程度低的城市以及气候政策不确定性较弱的城市中效果相对更强。而且，虽然政策实施能够抑制本地区的碳锁定，但可能会对邻近地区产生相反的影响。
