Malone Sparkle L, Schoettle Anna W, Burns Kelly S, Kearns Holly S J, Stewart Jane E, Newcomb Maria, Cleaver Christy M
Yale School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, 06511, USA.
USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO, 80526, USA.
Sci Data. 2025 Jun 20;12(1):1046. doi: 10.1038/s41597-025-05382-1.
White pine blister rust (WPBR) is one of North America's most damaging tree epidemics. Aggregating data from more than 80 independent studies across the western U.S. from 1995-2024, we estimate WPBR risk for high-elevation five-needle pine species (High-5) from 1980-2023 in the adaptive management tool RustMapper. WPBR risk is the probability of observing WPBR on the High-5. Stream density, topography, hardiness zone, precipitation, air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, and relative humidity were critical in estimating WPBR risk. WPBR risk increased with moisture and declined with temperature. Across the High-5 range, suitable conditions were found in areas where the disease had not yet invaded and throughout regions where the disease was well established. As a result, the mean risk for WPBR was much higher in the north (0.6) compared to the southern portions of the High-5 range (0.15). These findings indicate cautious optimism for disease mitigation success in regions where the disease is established and urgency for proactive management where WPBR occurrence is currently low.
白松疱锈病（WPBR）是北美最具破坏性的树木流行病之一。我们汇总了1995年至2024年美国西部80多项独立研究的数据，在适应性管理工具RustMapper中估算了1980年至2023年高海拔五针松树种（High-5）感染WPBR的风险。WPBR风险是指在High-5上观察到WPBR的概率。溪流密度、地形、耐寒区、降水量、气温、水汽压亏缺和相对湿度在估算WPBR风险时至关重要。WPBR风险随湿度增加而上升，随温度下降而降低。在整个High-5分布范围内，在疾病尚未入侵的地区以及疾病已广泛存在的地区都发现了适宜的条件。因此，与High-5分布范围的南部地区（约0.15）相比，WPBR在北部的平均风险要高得多（约0.6）。这些发现表明，对于疾病已存在地区的病害缓解成功持谨慎乐观态度，而对于目前WPBR发生率较低的地区则迫切需要进行积极管理。
