Decadal Shift in Nitrogen Inputs and Fluxes Across the Contiguous United States: 2002-2012.

The effectiveness of policies and management actions in reducing the release of excess nitrogen (N) to the environment is best assessed if N fluxes across air, land, and water are regularly quantified at relevant scales. Here we compiled 2002, 2007, and 2012 inventories of inputs and nonhydrologic N outputs along with fossil fuel emissions, food demand, and terrestrial N surpluses for all subbasins of the contiguous United States using peer-reviewed, publicly available data sets. We found that at the national scale, total inputs, outputs, and surpluses changed little (±6%) between 2002 and 2012 and remained dominated by agricultural processes, despite efforts to curb N losses. This consistency at the national scale, however, obscured large counteracting shifts at regional levels driven by variable fluxes across regions. Throughout the eastern United States, declines in deposition and fertilizer inputs combined with increased crop yields resulted in a decrease in terrestrial N surpluses, which may explain recent water quality improvements in the region. On the other hand, fertilizer N inputs in the Midwest increased at a greater rate than crop harvest N increased, leading to a larger terrestrial surplus N. A large relative increase (~320%) in N emissions in the West due to an unusual wildfire season in 2012 was also observed. These changes coincided with national policies that decreased N emissions and increased demand for domestic biofuels, potentially highlighting the capacity to change the source and magnitude of N inputs and fluxes across the landscape through market and regulatory actions.