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主要玉米害虫未来的分布范围变化表明它们对全球玉米生产的影响日益增大。

Future Range Shifts in Major Maize Insect Pests Suggest Their Increasing Impacts on Global Maize Production.

作者信息

Wei Qiance, Zhang Xueyou, Yang Fang, Duan Sixi, Fan Zejian, Nie Peixiao, Chen Zhihong, Feng Jianmeng

机构信息

College of Agriculture and Biological Science, Dali University, Dali 671003, China.

Research Center for Agro-Ecology in Erhai Lake Watershed, Dali University, Dali 671003, China.

出版信息

Insects. 2025 May 28;16(6):568. doi: 10.3390/insects16060568.

Abstract

Maize is one of the three staple grains, and its global demand has risen sharply in recent decades. However, insect pests are causing significant production losses. Despite this, few studies have yet investigated future range shifts in major insect pests affecting maize. Here, we used a unified framework to build 24 multi-algorithm models to forecast their future range shifts under future climate change scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585, representing optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively). Habitat suitability was projected to increase in most regions. Significant range expansions were identified for all of them, with future climate changes being the primary driver for most. High-range overlaps were predominantly observed in the USA, Mexico, and other regions. We also identified species showing the largest ranges and range shifts, suggesting the priority species in our strategies against their impacts on maize. The relative roles of climate and crop availability in the range dynamics of major insect pests affecting maize could be, to a certain extent, determined by whether they are monophagous on crop hosts or not. High-range overlap in key maize-producing regions highlights the substantial threat they pose to global maize production. Therefore, mitigating future climate changes could be a crucial strategy to reduce their impacts on future maize production.

摘要

玉米是三大主粮之一,近几十年来其全球需求急剧上升。然而,害虫正在造成重大的产量损失。尽管如此,很少有研究调查影响玉米的主要害虫未来的分布范围变化。在此,我们使用一个统一框架构建了24个多算法模型,以预测它们在未来气候变化情景(分别代表乐观情景和悲观情景的SSP126和SSP585)下的未来分布范围变化。预计大多数地区的栖息地适宜性将会增加。所有害虫的分布范围都有显著扩大,未来气候变化是大多数害虫分布范围扩大的主要驱动因素。在美国、墨西哥和其他地区主要观察到高范围重叠。我们还确定了分布范围和范围变化最大的物种,这表明了我们应对它们对玉米影响的策略中的优先物种。影响玉米的主要害虫分布范围动态中气候和作物可利用性的相对作用,在一定程度上可能取决于它们是否单食性取食作物寄主。关键玉米产区的高范围重叠凸显了它们对全球玉米生产构成的重大威胁。因此,缓解未来气候变化可能是减少它们对未来玉米生产影响的关键策略。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/02d9/12193563/c2015c7cbf7a/insects-16-00568-g001.jpg

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