非洲蚊子的活动范围动态表明疟疾传播风险显著增加。
Range dynamics of mosquitoes in Africa suggest a significant increase in the malaria transmission risk.
作者信息
Nie Peixiao, He Chunyan, Feng Jianmeng
机构信息
College of Agriculture and Biological Science Dali University Dali China.
Cangshan Forest Ecosystem Observation and Research Station of Yunnan Province Dali University Dali China.
出版信息
Ecol Evol. 2024 Jul 31;14(8):e70059. doi: 10.1002/ece3.70059. eCollection 2024 Aug.
Despite a more than 100-year effort to combat malaria, it remains one of the most malignant infectious diseases globally, especially in Africa. Malaria is transmitted by several mosquitoes. However, until now few studies have investigated future range dynamics of major . mosquitoes in Africa through a unified scheme. Through a unified scheme, we developed 21 species distribution models to predict the range dynamics of 21 major . species in Africa under future scenarios and also examined their overall range dynamic patterns mainly through suitability overlap index and range overlap index. Although future range dynamics varied substantially among the 21 . species, we predicted large future range expansions for all 21 . species, and increases in suitability overlap index were detected in more than 90% of the African continent for all future scenarios. Additionally, we predicted high range overlap index in West Africa, East Africa, South Sudan, Angola, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo under future scenarios. Although the relative impacts of land use, topography and climate variables on the range dynamics depended on species and spatial scale, climate played the strongest roles in the range dynamics of most species. Africa might face an increasing risk of malaria transmissions in the future, and better strategies are required to address this problem. Mitigating climate change and human disturbance of natural ecosystems might be essential to reduce the proliferation of . species and the risk of malaria transmissions in Africa in the future. Our strategies against their impacts should be species-specific.
尽管为抗击疟疾付出了100多年的努力,但疟疾仍是全球最严重的传染病之一,尤其是在非洲。疟疾由几种蚊子传播。然而,到目前为止,很少有研究通过统一的方案来调查非洲主要蚊子未来的分布动态。通过一个统一的方案,我们开发了21个物种分布模型,以预测未来情景下非洲21种主要蚊子的分布动态,并主要通过适宜性重叠指数和分布重叠指数来研究它们的总体分布动态模式。尽管这21种蚊子未来的分布动态差异很大,但我们预测所有21种蚊子的分布范围在未来都会大幅扩大,并且在所有未来情景下,非洲大陆90%以上的地区都检测到适宜性重叠指数增加。此外,我们预测在未来情景下,西非、东非、南苏丹、安哥拉和刚果民主共和国的分布重叠指数会很高。尽管土地利用、地形和气候变量对分布动态的相对影响取决于物种和空间尺度,但气候在大多数物种的分布动态中起着最强的作用。非洲未来可能面临疟疾传播风险增加的问题,需要更好的策略来解决这一问题。减轻气候变化和人类对自然生态系统的干扰可能是减少未来非洲蚊子繁殖和疟疾传播风险的关键。我们应对其影响的策略应该是针对特定物种的。