Cao Yu, Chen Hanwu, Wu Hao, Wu Bin, Wang Lu, Liu Xin, Yang Yuyue, Tan Hui, Gao Wei
School of Public Health, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, 461 Ba Yi Avenue, Nanchang 330006, China.
Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Disease Prevention and Public Health, Nanchang University, 461 Ba Yi Avenue, Nanchang 330006, China.
Trop Med Infect Dis. 2025 Jun 18;10(6):173. doi: 10.3390/tropicalmed10060173.
Dengue, an acute infectious disease caused by the dengue virus, remains a major public health problem in the 21st century. This study investigated the global dengue burden, identified high-risk regions, evaluated the long-term incidence trends, and can inform evidence-based control strategies. Using GBD 2021 data, we analysed the dengue incidence from 1992 to 2021 using age-period-cohort models. We determined the net drift (overall annual percentage change), local drift (annual percentage change for each age group), longitudinal age curves (expected longitudinal age-specific rates), and periods' (cohorts') relative risks. In 2021, the global age-standardised incidence rate reached 752.04/100,000 (95% UI: 196.33-1363.35), a 47.26% increase since 1992. High-risk regions included eastern sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean. Southeast Asia experienced the largest rise (65.43%), with a net drift of 2.47% (1992-2021). While individuals aged 5-39 years bore the highest burden, those over 80 faced an elevated risk. Dengue remains a critical public health threat, disproportionately affecting younger populations but increasingly endangering older adults. Targeted interventions in high-risk regions and age groups, coupled with precision public health strategies, are essential to enhance prevention and control efforts.
登革热是一种由登革热病毒引起的急性传染病，在21世纪仍然是一个主要的公共卫生问题。本研究调查了全球登革热负担，确定了高风险地区，评估了长期发病率趋势，并为基于证据的控制策略提供依据。利用全球疾病负担研究（GBD）2021年的数据，我们使用年龄-时期-队列模型分析了1992年至2021年的登革热发病率。我们确定了净漂移（总体年度百分比变化）、局部漂移（每个年龄组的年度百分比变化）、纵向年龄曲线（预期的特定年龄纵向发病率）以及各时期（队列）的相对风险。2021年，全球年龄标准化发病率达到752.04/10万（95%不确定区间：196.33-1363.35），自1992年以来增加了47.26%。高风险地区包括撒哈拉以南非洲东部、东南亚、南亚以及拉丁美洲和加勒比地区。东南亚的发病率上升幅度最大（65.43%），净漂移为2.47%（1992-2021年）。虽然5至39岁的人群负担最重，但80岁以上的人群面临的风险有所上升。登革热仍然是一个严重威胁公众健康的问题，对年轻人群的影响尤为严重，但对老年人的危害也日益增加。在高风险地区和年龄组采取有针对性的干预措施，结合精准公共卫生策略，对于加强预防和控制工作至关重要。
