Hasan Mohammad Nayeem, Rahman Mahbubur, Uddin Meraj, Ashrafi Shah Ali Akbar, Rahman Kazi Mizanur, Paul Kishor Kumar, Sarker Mohammad Ferdous Rahman, Haque Farhana, Sharma Avinash, Papakonstantinou Danai, Paudyal Priyamvada, Asaduzzaman Md, Zumla Alimuddin, Haider Najmul
Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet, Bangladesh.
Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR), Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Epidemiol Infect. 2025 Jan 7;153:e3. doi: 10.1017/S0950268824001791.
In 2023, Bangladesh experienced its largest and deadliest outbreak of the Dengue virus (DENV), reporting the highest-ever recorded annual cases and deaths. Historically, most of the cases were recorded in the capital city, Dhaka. We aimed to characterize the geographical transmission of DENV in Bangladesh. From 1 January-31 December 2023, we extracted and analyzed daily data on dengue cases and deaths from the Management Information System of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. We performed a generalized linear mixed model to identify the associations between division-wise daily dengue counts and various geographical and meteorological covariates. The number of dengue cases reported in 2023 was 1.3 times higher than the total number recorded in the past 23 years (321,179 vs. 244,246), with twice as many deaths than the total fatalities recorded over the past 23 years (1705 vs. 849). Of the 1,705 deaths in 2023, 67.4% ( = 1,015) died within one day after hospital admission. The divisions southern to Dhaka had a higher dengue incidence/1000 population (2.30 vs. 0.50, <0.01) than the northern divisions. Festival-related travel along with meteorological factors and urbanization are likely to have contributed to the shift of dengue from Dhaka to different districts in Bangladesh.
2023年，孟加拉国经历了登革热病毒（DENV）规模最大、致死人数最多的疫情，报告的年度病例数和死亡人数均创历史新高。从历史上看，大多数病例都记录在首都达卡。我们旨在描述孟加拉国登革热病毒的地理传播特征。2023年1月1日至12月31日，我们从卫生和家庭福利部的管理信息系统中提取并分析了登革热病例和死亡的每日数据。我们进行了广义线性混合模型分析，以确定各行政区每日登革热病例数与各种地理和气象协变量之间的关联。2023年报告的登革热病例数比过去23年记录的总数高出1.3倍（321,179例对244,246例），死亡人数是过去23年记录的总死亡人数的两倍（1705例对849例）。在2023年的1705例死亡病例中，67.4%（n = 1015）在入院一天内死亡。达卡以南的行政区登革热发病率/每1000人口（2.30对0.50，P < 0.01）高于北部行政区。与节日相关的旅行以及气象因素和城市化可能导致了登革热在孟加拉国从达卡向不同地区的转移。
