Khan Manzura, Wang Xiuquan, Thakur Krishna Kumar, Guild Ryan, Nawaz Rana Ali, Awais Muhammad
Canadian Centre for Climate Change and Adaptation, University of Prince Edward Island, St. Peter's Bay, PE C0A 2A0, Canada.
School of Climate Change and Adaptation, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PE C1A 4P3, Canada.
Foods. 2025 Jun 12;14(12):2072. doi: 10.3390/foods14122072.
The lobster fishery is the third largest industry in Prince Edward Island (PEI), Atlantic Canada. Rising water temperatures due to global warming are impacting the successful completion of the lobster life cycle, which is heavily dependent on water temperature. This study investigated the relationship between lobster landings and sea surface temperature (SST) in PEI. Using Generalized Linear Models (GLM), we identified a significant correlation between annual historical lobster landings and monthly sea surface temperatures (SST) in the waters around PEI from 1990 to 2021. Considering the 5-8 year maturation period of lobsters, we applied a lagged SST structure over an 8-year period and used a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) to evaluate the relationship between historical SST and lobster landings. Our findings suggest that historical increases in SST are correlated with changes in lobster landings. Given the known sensitivities of lobster life cycles (i.e., spawning, larval development) and behavior (i.e., mating) to high ambient water temperature, our study also offers important insights for future fishery management under anticipated climate change scenarios.
龙虾渔业是加拿大东部爱德华王子岛（PEI）的第三大产业。全球变暖导致水温上升，正影响着龙虾生命周期的顺利完成，而龙虾生命周期严重依赖水温。本研究调查了PEI龙虾上岸量与海表温度（SST）之间的关系。使用广义线性模型（GLM），我们确定了1990年至2021年PEI周边海域年度历史龙虾上岸量与月海表温度（SST）之间存在显著相关性。考虑到龙虾5至8年的成熟期，我们应用了一个8年期间的滞后海表温度结构，并使用广义线性模型（GLM）来评估历史海表温度与龙虾上岸量之间的关系。我们的研究结果表明，历史上海表温度的升高与龙虾上岸量的变化相关。鉴于已知龙虾生命周期（即产卵、幼体发育）和行为（即交配）对高环境水温的敏感性，我们的研究也为未来在预期气候变化情景下的渔业管理提供了重要见解。
