Zhao Xiaohu, Liu Shuchen, Zou Zhihui, Liang Chaozhao
Department of Urology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.
Front Public Health. 2025 Jun 11;13:1595159. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1595159. eCollection 2025.
Prostate cancer in men's health has become a significant driver of global disease burden, impacting aging populations worldwide. This study assesses its prevalence from 1990 to 2021 to reveal ongoing epidemiological trends and inform effective public health strategies.
Prostate cancer prevalence estimates, including their 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), were derived from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study. Then, temporal trends spanning the past 32 years were thoroughly analyzed using Joinpoint regression, with projections for the next 25 years made using the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model. Concurrently, disease trends were decomposed into components of population growth, aging, and epidemiological changes. Additionally, age-period-cohort (APC) models were also employed to explore the impact of age, time, and cohort effect on the relative risk of prostate cancer prevalence. And the cross-country inequalities in the prevalence of prostate cancer burden were meticulously evaluated through the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), revealing significant disparities across socio-economic strata.
In 2021, over 10 million prostate cancer cases were recorded worldwide-a 188.85% increase from 3.6 million in 1990. The age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) rose at an estimated annual percentage change of 0.64% (95% UI: 0.47%-0.82%); Joinpoint regression revealed a steady increase in case numbers over 32 years, while the ASPR peaked and then slightly declined. Decomposition analysis showed population growth as the main driver (65.62%), with epidemiological changes and aging accounting for 17.97 and 16.41%, respectively. APC modeling indicated the highest relative risk around age 75-nearly 10 times that of the general population (RR: 9.99; 95% CI: 9.97-10.01). Projections through 2046 forecast a continued rise in both total cases and ASPR.
As a major health concern among older adult men, the global prevalence of prostate cancer has risen steadily since 1990, with population growth identified as the primary driver. Moreover, SDI-related disparities across 204 countries and territories have widened over time. Finally, the APC model forecasts a continuous increase in prevalence over the next 25 years, underscoring the growing disease burden and the urgent need for more targeted and effective management strategies.
前列腺癌在男性健康中已成为全球疾病负担的重要驱动因素，影响着全球老龄化人口。本研究评估了1990年至2021年期间前列腺癌的患病率，以揭示当前的流行病学趋势，并为有效的公共卫生策略提供依据。
前列腺癌患病率估计值及其95%不确定性区间（UI）来自《2021年全球疾病负担》（GBD）研究。然后，使用Joinpoint回归对过去32年的时间趋势进行了全面分析，并使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型对未来25年进行了预测。同时，将疾病趋势分解为人口增长、老龄化和流行病学变化等因素。此外，还采用年龄-时期-队列（APC）模型来探讨年龄、时间和队列效应对前列腺癌患病率相对风险的影响。并且通过社会人口指数（SDI）对前列腺癌负担患病率的跨国不平等进行了细致评估，揭示了社会经济阶层之间的显著差异。
2021年，全球记录的前列腺癌病例超过1000万例，比1990年的360万例增加了188.85%。年龄标准化患病率（ASPR）以每年0.64%的估计百分比变化上升（95% UI：0.47%-0.82%）；Joinpoint回归显示，32年间病例数稳步增加，而ASPR达到峰值后略有下降。分解分析表明，人口增长是主要驱动因素（65.62%），流行病学变化和老龄化分别占17.97%和16.41%。APC建模表明，75岁左右的相对风险最高，几乎是普通人群的10倍（RR：9.99；95% CI：9.97-10.01）。到2046年的预测显示，总病例数和ASPR都将持续上升。
作为老年男性的主要健康问题，自1990年以来，全球前列腺癌患病率稳步上升，人口增长被确定为主要驱动因素。此外，204个国家和地区与SDI相关的差距随着时间的推移而扩大。最后，APC模型预测未来25年患病率将持续上升，凸显了疾病负担的不断增加以及迫切需要更具针对性和有效的管理策略。
