BACKGROUND

To promote evidence-based policymaking, this research attempts to investigate global trends in depressive disorders among individuals aged 15-39 from 1990 to 2021, determine risk factors, and forecast the next trends from 2022 to 2050.

METHODS

Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database were analyzed to look at the global, national, and regional burden of depressive disorders among individuals aged 15-39 from 1990 to 2021. Incidence rates, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and contributions of various risk factors to DALYs were also examined in this research. All incidence and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates were calculated per 100,000 population and are presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). The burden of disease through 2050 was projected using Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modeling.

RESULTS

Globally, the incidence in 2021 was estimated at 158,696,139.89 cases (95% UI, 129,182,271.23-197,238,491.78), with associated DALYs totaling 25,093,054.94 (95% UI, 16,739,757.06-35,139,293.90). Between 1990 and 2021, the incidence rose by 62.91% (95% UI, 57.91-68.12%), while DALYs increased by 60.46% (95% UI, 55.99-64.91%). The highest estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) for both incidence [2.63%; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.45-2.82%] and DALYs (2.72%; 95% CI, 2.57-2.88%) were identified in low Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions. Western Europe had the most cases (9,939,816.39; 95% UI, 8,081,380.82-12,409,843.00) among the 21 geographic regions examined in 2021. Globally, India exhibited the most significant burden in 2021, with incident cases reaching 32,241,303.32 (95% UI, 26,251,449.50-39,943,511.76). Furthermore, the largest burden of DALYs was observed in India, amounting to 5,034,818.12 (95% UI, 3,363,390.70-7,076,632.70). The global burden was primarily attributed to several significant risk factors, including exposure to behavioral risks, experiences of bullying victimization, incidents of childhood sexual abuse, experiences of childhood sexual abuse and bullying, as well as intimate partner violence. Projections extending to 2050 indicate an ongoing upward trend in the incidence rate within this demographic group during this period.

CONCLUSION

Overall, the burden of depressive disorders in this population has shown a marked increase, especially in low-SDI regions. A comprehensive understanding of the epidemiology of depressive disorders among adolescents and young adults is essential to enhance disease prevention and control efforts.