Zhao Le, Lou Yan, Tao Yuexian, Wang Hangsai, Xu Nan
Department of Nursing, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.
Department of Nursing, Jinhua Vocational and Technical College, Jinhua, Zhejiang, China.
Front Public Health. 2025 Jun 11;13:1599602. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1599602. eCollection 2025.
To promote evidence-based policymaking, this research attempts to investigate global trends in depressive disorders among individuals aged 15-39 from 1990 to 2021, determine risk factors, and forecast the next trends from 2022 to 2050.
Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database were analyzed to look at the global, national, and regional burden of depressive disorders among individuals aged 15-39 from 1990 to 2021. Incidence rates, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and contributions of various risk factors to DALYs were also examined in this research. All incidence and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates were calculated per 100,000 population and are presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). The burden of disease through 2050 was projected using Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modeling.
Globally, the incidence in 2021 was estimated at 158,696,139.89 cases (95% UI, 129,182,271.23-197,238,491.78), with associated DALYs totaling 25,093,054.94 (95% UI, 16,739,757.06-35,139,293.90). Between 1990 and 2021, the incidence rose by 62.91% (95% UI, 57.91-68.12%), while DALYs increased by 60.46% (95% UI, 55.99-64.91%). The highest estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) for both incidence [2.63%; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.45-2.82%] and DALYs (2.72%; 95% CI, 2.57-2.88%) were identified in low Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions. Western Europe had the most cases (9,939,816.39; 95% UI, 8,081,380.82-12,409,843.00) among the 21 geographic regions examined in 2021. Globally, India exhibited the most significant burden in 2021, with incident cases reaching 32,241,303.32 (95% UI, 26,251,449.50-39,943,511.76). Furthermore, the largest burden of DALYs was observed in India, amounting to 5,034,818.12 (95% UI, 3,363,390.70-7,076,632.70). The global burden was primarily attributed to several significant risk factors, including exposure to behavioral risks, experiences of bullying victimization, incidents of childhood sexual abuse, experiences of childhood sexual abuse and bullying, as well as intimate partner violence. Projections extending to 2050 indicate an ongoing upward trend in the incidence rate within this demographic group during this period.
Overall, the burden of depressive disorders in this population has shown a marked increase, especially in low-SDI regions. A comprehensive understanding of the epidemiology of depressive disorders among adolescents and young adults is essential to enhance disease prevention and control efforts.
为促进循证决策，本研究试图调查1990年至2021年15至39岁人群中抑郁症的全球趋势，确定风险因素，并预测2022年至2050年的未来趋势。
分析全球疾病负担（GBD）2021数据库的数据，以了解1990年至2021年15至39岁人群中抑郁症的全球、国家和地区负担。本研究还检查了发病率、伤残调整生命年（DALYs）以及各种风险因素对DALYs的贡献。所有发病率和伤残调整生命年（DALY）率均按每10万人计算，并给出相应的95%不确定性区间（UIs）。使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型预测了到2050年的疾病负担。
全球范围内，2021年的发病率估计为158,696,139.89例（95% UI，129,182,271.23 - 197,238,491.78），相关的DALYs总计25,093,054.94（95% UI，16,739,757.06 - 35,139,293.90）。1990年至2021年期间，发病率上升了62.91%（95% UI，57.91 - 68.12%），而DALYs增加了60.46%（95% UI，55.99 - 64.91%）。在社会人口指数（SDI）较低的地区，发病率[2.63%；95%置信区间（CI），2.45 - 2.82%]和DALYs（2.72%；95% CI，2.57 - 2.88%）的估计年度百分比变化（EAPCs）最高。在2021年检查的21个地理区域中，西欧的病例数最多（9,939,816.39；95% UI，8,081,380.82 - 12,409,843.00）。全球范围内，印度在2021年的负担最为显著，发病病例达到32,241,303.32（95% UI，26,251,449.50 - 39,943,511.76）。此外，印度的DALYs负担最大，达到5,034,818.12（95% UI，3,363,390.70 - 7,076,632.70）。全球负担主要归因于几个重要的风险因素，包括暴露于行为风险、受欺凌受害经历、儿童期性虐待事件、儿童期性虐待和欺凌经历以及亲密伴侣暴力。到2050年的预测表明，在此期间该人群的发病率将持续呈上升趋势。
总体而言，该人群中抑郁症的负担显著增加，尤其是在社会人口指数较低的地区。全面了解青少年和青年抑郁症的流行病学对于加强疾病预防和控制工作至关重要。
