Flores-Pérez Nuri, Kulkarni Pranav, Uhart Marcela, Pandit Pranav S
Department of Population Health and Reproduction, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA, 95616, USA.
School of Veterinary Medicine, Karen C. Drayer Wildlife Health Center, University of California, Davis, CA, USA.
Ecohealth. 2025 Jun 27. doi: 10.1007/s10393-025-01723-z.
The drylands vesper mouse (Calomys musculinus) is the primary host for Junin mammarenavirus (JUNV), the etiological agent of Argentine hemorrhagic fever in humans. We assessed the potential distribution of C. musculinus and identified disease transmission hotspots under current climatic conditions and projected future scenarios, including severe (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) and intermediate (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) climate change scenarios in 2050 and 2070. Utilizing tree-based machine learning algorithms, we modeled C. musculinus distribution by incorporating bioclimatic and landscape predictors. The model showed strong performance, achieving F-scores between 80.22 and 83.09%. Key predictors indicated that C. musculinus prefers warm temperatures, moderate annual precipitation, low precipitation variability, and low pasture coverage. Under the severe climate change scenario, suitable areas for the rodent and hotspots for potential disease decreased. The intermediate scenario showed an expansion in C. musculinus distribution alongside increased potential hotspot zones. Despite the complexity of ecological systems and the limitations of the model, our findings offer a framework for preventive measures and ecological studies in regions prone to the expansion of C. musculinus and in hotspots for disease transmission driven by climate change.
旱地暮鼠（Calomys musculinus）是胡宁沙粒病毒（JUNV）的主要宿主，该病毒是人类阿根廷出血热的病原体。我们评估了旱地暮鼠的潜在分布，并确定了当前气候条件下以及预测的未来情景（包括2050年和2070年的严重情景（代表性浓度路径8.5）和中等情景（代表性浓度路径4.5）气候变化情景）下的疾病传播热点。利用基于树的机器学习算法，我们通过纳入生物气候和景观预测因子对旱地暮鼠的分布进行了建模。该模型表现良好，F分数在80.22%至83.09%之间。关键预测因子表明，旱地暮鼠偏好温暖的温度、适度的年降水量、低降水变异性和低牧场覆盖率。在严重气候变化情景下，适合该啮齿动物生存的区域以及潜在疾病热点减少。中等情景显示旱地暮鼠的分布范围扩大，同时潜在热点区域增加。尽管生态系统复杂且模型存在局限性，但我们的研究结果为在旱地暮鼠可能扩张的地区以及由气候变化驱动的疾病传播热点地区开展预防措施和生态研究提供了一个框架。
