Xu Junping, Liu Qiang, Ma Jiayu, Yan Weike, Guo Huijun, Tian Kun
Forestry College, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China.
Yunnan Key Laboratory of Plateau Wetland Conservation, Restoration and Ecological Services, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China.
Plants (Basel). 2025 Jun 12;14(12):1798. doi: 10.3390/plants14121798.
Understanding the variations in the potential suitable habitats of different populations of the same species is crucial for targeted biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management in specific regions. For widely distributed species, the impact of climate change on the suitable habitats of different populations may vary. However, research in this area is currently insufficient. is an aquatic species widely distributed across the Northern Hemisphere, with an altitudinal range from 0 to 5000 m, known for its high ecological and medicinal significance. In this study, we employed a MaxEnt model to simulate the current and future suitable habitats of through constructing high-altitude, low-altitude, and integrated distribution models. The results indicated that bio3 (isothermality), bio1 (annual mean temperature), and bio19 (precipitation of coldest quarter) significantly influenced the distribution of high-altitude populations of , whereas in low-altitude areas, bio3, bio9 (mean temperature of driest quarter), and bio13 (precipitation of wettest month) were the main influencing factors, and for integrated distribution populations, bio1, bio13, and bio19 were the main factors. The suitable habitat area for high-altitude populations of will be increased by 19.66% in the 2050s but decrease by 47.75% in the 2070s. The suitable habitat area for low-altitude populations will be increased by 99.71% in the 2050s and by 13.29% in the 2070s. Our findings showed that the key bioclimatic variables and suitable values influencing the distribution of populations in high- and low-altitude regions differed, and changes in the suitable habitats for high- and low-altitude populations showed completely opposite trends under climate change, with migration directions extending towards higher altitudes and higher latitudes, respectively.
了解同一物种不同种群潜在适宜栖息地的变化，对于特定区域的针对性生物多样性保护和生态系统管理至关重要。对于广泛分布的物种，气候变化对不同种群适宜栖息地的影响可能有所不同。然而，目前该领域的研究尚不充分。[某物种]是一种广泛分布于北半球的水生物种，海拔范围为0至5000米，具有很高的生态和药用价值。在本研究中，我们采用最大熵模型（MaxEnt），通过构建高海拔、低海拔和综合分布模型，来模拟[该物种]当前和未来的适宜栖息地。结果表明，生物气候变量bio3（等温性）、bio1（年均温度）和bio19（最冷月降水量）对[该物种]高海拔种群的分布有显著影响，而在低海拔地区，bio3、bio9（最干季平均温度）和bio13（最湿月降水量）是主要影响因素，对于综合分布种群，bio1、bio13和bio19是主要因素。[该物种]高海拔种群的适宜栖息地面积在2050年代将增加19.66%，但在2070年代将减少47.75%。低海拔种群的适宜栖息地面积在2050年代将增加99.71%，在2070年代将增加13.29%。我们的研究结果表明，影响[该物种]高海拔和低海拔种群分布的关键生物气候变量和适宜值不同，在气候变化下，高海拔和低海拔种群适宜栖息地的变化呈现完全相反的趋势，其迁移方向分别向更高海拔和更高纬度延伸。
