Wang Tianyu, Yin Hongyuan, Li Chengsi, Li Changhui, Wu Dongwei, Yang Zhenbang, Zhang Xuebin, Zhang Yingze, Zhu Yanbin
Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Hebei Medical University Third Hospital, Shijiazhuang, 050051, P.R. China.
School of Medicine, Nankai University, Tianjin, 300071, P.R. China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 2;15(1):22601. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-06305-1.
Current assessment of preoperative deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in elderly patients with femoral neck fracture is limited. We aimed to identify independent risk factors for preoperative DVT in patients with femoral neck fracture and to develop and validate a predictive nomogram. Patients diagnosed with femoral neck fracture from October 2014 to April 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. Baseline data, treatment information and laboratory test results were collected, and the occurrence of DVT in the preoperative period was regarded as the study outcome event. Multivariable logistic regression identified independent risk factors associated with a higher incidence of preoperative DVT. The predictive nomogram was constructed based on the analysis results. The stability of the model was further assessed in this study using patients from May 2019 to September 2022 as an external validation set. A total of 921 patients were enrolled in the study, of which 639 were used in the training cohort and the other 282 for the validation cohort. Multivariate analysis revealed age (OR 1.100, 95% CI 1.042-1.162), BMI ≥ 28 (OR 3.969, 95% CI 1.792-8.793), smoking (OR 2.998, 95% CI 1.255-7.165), LDL-C > 3.4 mmol/L (OR 2.628, 95% CI 1.316-5.250), and d-dimer > 0.475 mg/L (OR 3.157, 95% CI 1.565-6.368) were the independent risk factors of preoperative DVT. The concordance index (C-index) of the nomogram were 0.832 in the training set, and the corrected values after internal validation were 0.759. The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the calibration curve, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and the decision curve analysis (DCA) performed well in both the training and validation cohorts. In this study, we developed a personalised predictive nomogram containing five high-risk factors, which can help surgeons stratify the risk of preoperative DVT in elderly patients with femoral necks and guide high-risk patients to ultrasound scans or prophylactic anticoagulation as soon as possible.
目前对老年股骨颈骨折患者术前深静脉血栓形成(DVT)的评估有限。我们旨在确定股骨颈骨折患者术前DVT的独立危险因素,并开发和验证一个预测列线图。对2014年10月至2019年4月诊断为股骨颈骨折的患者进行回顾性分析。收集基线数据、治疗信息和实验室检查结果,将术前DVT的发生作为研究结局事件。多变量逻辑回归确定了与术前DVT发生率较高相关的独立危险因素。根据分析结果构建预测列线图。本研究使用2019年5月至2022年9月的患者作为外部验证集,进一步评估模型的稳定性。共有921例患者纳入研究,其中639例用于训练队列,另外282例用于验证队列。多因素分析显示年龄(OR 1.100,95%CI 1.042-1.162)、BMI≥28(OR 3.969,95%CI 1.792-8.793)、吸烟(OR 2.998,95%CI 1.255-7.165)、低密度脂蛋白胆固醇(LDL-C)>3.4 mmol/L(OR 2.628,95%CI 1.316-5.250)和D-二聚体>0.475 mg/L(OR 3.157,95%CI 1.565-6.368)是术前DVT的独立危险因素。列线图在训练集中的一致性指数(C-index)为0.832,内部验证后的校正值为0.759。受试者操作特征(ROC)曲线、校准曲线、Hosmer-Lemeshow检验和决策曲线分析(DCA)在训练队列和验证队列中均表现良好。在本研究中,我们开发了一个包含五个高危因素的个性化预测列线图,可帮助外科医生对老年股骨颈骨折患者术前DVT风险进行分层,并指导高危患者尽早进行超声检查或预防性抗凝治疗。