Chaoxu Xia, Wenhua Qi, Huayue Li, Gaozhong Nie
Key Laboratory of Seismic and Volcanic Hazards, Earthquake Administration, Yard No.1, Hua Yan Li, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100029, China.
Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Yard No.1, Hua Yan Li, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100029, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 1;15(1):21137. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-08209-6.
Rapid assessment of earthquake disaster losses is crucial for effective emergency rescue operations, with post-earthquake geological hazards constituting a significant component. In this study, we conducted extensive field investigations of historical earthquakes in China, collecting mortality data categorized by cause of death. Through analysis of historical earthquake records, we determined the proportions of fatalities attributed to different causes, integrating seismic intensity data, population distribution information, to establish intensity-dependent mortality rates for earthquake-triggered landslides. We systematically compiled the spatial distribution patterns, occurrence frequency, and density characteristics of landslides induced by historical earthquakes through field surveys and literature analysis. By comparing these results with historical intensity-mortality relationships, we quantified the amplifying effect of secondary geological hazards on mortality rates. The results demonstrate that landslide hazards exhibit significant mortality amplification at intensities of VIII and above, with this amplification effect intensifying progressively with higher seismic intensities. Using these findings, we developed a lethality matrix for earthquake-triggered landslides by incorporating intensity-mortality relationships. Validation using historical earthquake cases shows that the calculated casualties error within ± 30% of actual recorded values across different regions and magnitudes. This study achieves two objectives (1) verifies the validity and regional applicability of the proposed matrix methodology for landslide casualty assessment, and (2) provides a scientific foundation for developing regionalized assessment matrices, thereby enhancing post-earthquake emergency response capabilities.
快速评估地震灾害损失对于有效的应急救援行动至关重要，其中地震后地质灾害是一个重要组成部分。在本研究中，我们对中国历史地震进行了广泛的实地调查，收集了按死亡原因分类的死亡率数据。通过分析历史地震记录，我们确定了不同原因导致的死亡比例，整合了地震烈度数据、人口分布信息，以建立地震引发滑坡的烈度相关死亡率。我们通过实地调查和文献分析，系统地编制了历史地震诱发滑坡的空间分布模式、发生频率和密度特征。通过将这些结果与历史烈度-死亡率关系进行比较，我们量化了次生地质灾害对死亡率的放大效应。结果表明，滑坡灾害在烈度为 VIII 及以上时表现出显著的死亡率放大效应，且这种放大效应随着地震烈度的升高而逐渐增强。利用这些发现，我们通过纳入烈度-死亡率关系，开发了地震引发滑坡的致死率矩阵。使用历史地震案例进行验证表明，不同地区和震级的计算伤亡误差在实际记录值的±30%以内。本研究实现了两个目标：（1）验证了所提出的滑坡伤亡评估矩阵方法的有效性和区域适用性；（2）为开发区域化评估矩阵提供了科学依据，从而提高地震应急响应能力。
