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中国西北地区农业干旱的时空特征及多元重现期

Spatio-temporal characteristics and multivariate recurrence period of agricultural drought in Northwestern China.

作者信息

Feng Kai, Wang Shile, Wang Yingying, Li Yanbin, Jiang Tianliang, Huang Shengzhi, Wang Fei, Su Xiaoling, Zhang Zezhong

机构信息

College of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, 450045, China.

Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, 100038, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 2;15(1):23462. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-04473-8.

DOI:10.1038/s41598-025-04473-8
PMID:40603353
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12222953/
Abstract

Agricultural drought poses significant challenges to food production and ecosystem sustainability. The evolution of drought and its recurrence period feature are important for drought mitigation and risk management. This study aims to evaluate agricultural drought using the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI) based on Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) products, and extract drought variables using a three-dimensional identification method in Northwestern China. Then, the spatiotemporal dynamics and recurrence characteristics of agricultural droughts were evaluated. The results showed that: (1) Study area experienced alternating phases of dry and wet, with intensification in the 1960s and 1990s, and significant humidification post-2000. All four seasons show a wetting trend, while spring exhibited notable humidification trends. (2) Drought intensity and frequency displayed regional variability, agricultural drought in the west part of the study area were high in frequency but low in intensity, while the opposite was true in the east. (3) Agricultural drought exhibited cyclical behavior with dominant periods of 3.5, 6.6, and 13.5 years, reflecting interannual and interdecadal fluctuations. (4) Multivariate joint recurrence periods highlighted significant correlations among drought characteristics, emphasizing the risk of underestimation when considering single variables. These results offer valuable insights for water resources allocation and drought mitigation.

摘要

农业干旱对粮食生产和生态系统可持续性构成重大挑战。干旱的演变及其重现期特征对于干旱缓解和风险管理至关重要。本研究旨在利用基于全球陆地数据同化系统（GLDAS）产品的标准化土壤湿度指数（SSMI）评估中国西北地区的农业干旱，并采用三维识别方法提取干旱变量。然后，评估了农业干旱的时空动态和重现特征。结果表明：（1）研究区域经历了干湿交替阶段，在20世纪60年代和90年代干旱加剧，2000年后显著湿润化。四季均呈现湿润趋势，春季湿润化趋势尤为显著。（2）干旱强度和频率存在区域差异，研究区域西部农业干旱频率高但强度低，而东部则相反。（3）农业干旱呈现周期性，主导周期为3.5年、6.6年和13.5年，反映了年际和年代际波动。（4）多变量联合重现期突出了干旱特征之间的显著相关性，强调了单变量分析时存在低估风险。这些结果为水资源配置和干旱缓解提供了有价值的见解。

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本文引用的文献

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Effects of elevated CO concentration and experimental warming on morphological, physiological, and biochemical responses of winter wheat under soil water deficiency.土壤水分亏缺条件下，CO浓度升高和实验性增温对冬小麦形态、生理和生化响应的影响。
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